Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)

[atomic7732]

pfft tuto take some risks like

i predict clouds... today

[Darvince]

kol also

today will probably be the last day below 90 degrees F until fall (50% chance)

this is going to get shattered pretty soon

this got shattered yesterday

Luke AFB high yesterday: 82F
PHX high yesterday: 84F
Deer Valley high yesterday: 83F


Also shitty darcast for the next 10 days:

	05/06	05/07	05/08	05/09	05/10	05/11	05/12	05/13	05/14	05/15
High/Low	86/65	83/60	77/53	81/55	86/60	91/63	93/67	95/69	90/66	85/65
% clouds, level	25%, high	0%, high	10%, high	50%, high	50%, high	50%, mid	10%, low	10%, low	50%, high	75%, mid
P chance	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%	0%	0%	5%	5%

[atomic7732]

well it could be under 80 on friday

[Darvince]

revision for later days

	05/06	05/07	05/08	05/09	05/10	05/11	05/12	05/13	05/14	05/15
High/Low	86/65	83/60	77/53	81/55	86/60	91/63	93/67	94/69	89/67	84/68
% clouds, level	25%, high	0%, high	10%, high	50%, high	50%, high	50%, mid	10%, low	25%, high	75%, mid	90%, low
P chance	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%	0%	0%	5%	25%

[atomic7732]

nuecast for rains

0508 40% (T-0.05 in)
0509 10% (0-T)
0510 05% (0-T)
0511 00%
0512 10% (0-T)
0513 00%
0514 00%
----------
0515 00%
0516 00%
0517 10%

[Darvince]

Darcast for 05-24 till 06-02

	05/24	05/25	05/26	05/27	05/28	05/29	05/30	05/31	06/01	06/02
High/Low	83/63	86/64	90/67	93/70	92/70	94/71	98/73	100/74	103/76	104/82
Dew Point	40/30	40/30	30/20	30/10	30/10	35/20	35/25	40/30	60/35	60/40
% clouds, level	25%, high	50%, mix	0%, high	0%, high	0%, high	0%, high	10%, low	10%, low	25%, low	50%, low
P chance	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%	15%

[Darvince]

Darcast for 05-29 till 06-07

	05/29	05/30	05/31	06/01	06/02	06/03	06/04	06/05	06/06	06/07
High/Low	94/71	98/74	103/77	104/79	102/78	100/75	99/73	98/73	96/72	99/74
Dew Point	35/20	40/30	45/30	45/30	45/30	40/30	35/20	35/10	40/15	45/25
% clouds, level	10%, high	0%, high	25%, mix	25%, low	50%, low	0%, high	10%, low	10%, low	25%, low	0%, high
P chance	0%	0%	0%	0%	5%	5%	0%	0%	0%	0%

[atomic7732]

precip nuecast

0602 00%
0603 00%
0604 00%
0605 10% (T - 0.05 in)
0606 00%
0607 10% (T - 0.05 in)
0608 20% (T - 0.05 in)
---
0609 05% (0 - T)
0610 00%
0611 00%

[Darvince]

Darcast for 06-02 till 06-12

	06/02	06/03	06/04	06/05	06/06	06/07	06/08	06/09	06/10	06/11
High/Low	102/74	101/74	99/72	96/74	93/78	95/76	99/78	102/81	103/83	105/76
Dew Point	30/10	35/15	40/15	50/30	55/40	45/30	60/35	60/40	55/35	45/25
% clouds, level	10%, high	10%, high	50%, low	70%, low	70%, low	50%, mix	70%, mix	25%, mix	70%, low	25%, low
P chance	0%	0%	0%	5%	25%	10%	10%	30%	5%	0%

[Darvince]

We are weigh above normal

[Darvince]

Darcast for 10-12 till 10-21

	10/12	10/13	10/14	10/15	10/16	10/17	10/18	10/19	10/20	10/21
High/Low	98/74	99/76	100/76	97/75	88/70	82/63	84/68	87/70	90/67	92/67
Dew Point	55/45	55/45	55/45	55/45	60/50	65/55	65/50	60/50	60/45	60/30
% clouds, level	10%, high	10%, high	50%, high	50%, mix	50%, low	90%, low	75%, low	50%, low	25%, low	25%, low
P chance	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	50%	15%	15%	15%	0%

[Darvince]

prepare your anus california



this is coming

[Darvince]

why the heck does the CFS start the north american monsoon almost a month early

june 3

june 14

it's done this for several runs

[Darvince]

it turns out that the monsoon visited for 3 days in early june and now it's coming for real before june is over

[atomic7732]

dar we should play be better than IMD





this is a tropical depression

[atomic7732]

looks like july is going to be good for atl and epac (and thus for nhem)

but beyond that the outlook is... grim... with a complete reversal of conditions: favorable conditions centered in the indian ocean where nothing happens and average conditions in the wpac, but epac and atl being killed... at least until october

but by then it might be too late

[atomic7732]

some cute cyclones wrf is generating

[Darvince]

uh

[atomic7732]

looks like basically nothing to me tbh

[atomic7732]

* atomic7732 was investigating patterns of tropical cyclone activity and did this quick thing

1982-1985 vs 2012-2015



[08:38]   Kalassak   things to note:
[08:38]   Kalassak   epac appears to have moved slightly east
[08:39]   Kalassak   really actually
[08:39]   Kalassak   the tracks contracted
[08:39]   Kalassak   not sure why that would be
[08:39]   Kalassak   wpac has more storms closer to the equator
[08:39]   Kalassak   arabian sea has much stronger storms
[08:39]   Kalassak   swio is much more sprawled about
[08:40]   Kalassak   spac has receded west
[08:40]   Kalassak   atl is more sprawled about and there are more TCs further south

of course, these are just 4 years each, which could easily be influenced by ENSO or other oscillating climate patterns

some of the changes i think that have more merit: arabian sea, spac, and wpac

i'm going to do some more in-depth analyses when i finish putting all the tracks on my website back to 1963, then i'll do a decades version of this

[Darvince]

SPAC is an artifact of the 1982-83 el niƱo whose effects took a really long time to go away

a better comparison would be 1982-85 with 2015-18 but obviously 2016 is only just now underway and 2017 and 2018 haven't happened yet

[atomic7732]

a project



any suggestions dar?

basin codes will be
AL - desginations get special status, match with NHC and update with new storms
EP - designations get special status, see above
CP - should i use it? it would be uniform with NHC and also have special status
WP -
NI - not JTWC standard 'IO', nor any distinguish between 'A' and 'B'
SI - just used for Southwest Indian west of 90E
AU -
SP - just South Pacific east of 160E
SL -

all storms outside of AL, EP, and CP will receive designations unique to my database
they will be unique identifiers and permanent such that added storms get a number following the last storm in the operational season and removed storms will leave a gap between two numbers
AL, EP, and CP storms will have special status such that their identifiers will be updated to match with the official ATCF when new storms are added or they are removed, since the data quality there is high