Tropical Cyclones

[atomic7732]

[atomic7732]

I don't normally like the storms in the South China Sea-ish area, but Son-Tinh is cool.



And Sandy:





Have fun kip.

[tuto99]

I live in Florida, so I'm getting constant showers and wind. Yay for rain!

[Darvince]

wt how is sandy still 65kt

[atomic7732]

majik

[blotz]

what category is Sandy?

or tropical storm?
or in between?

btw everyone here is like buying food and back-up generators like this is a cat. 6.

reminds me of
http://xkcd.com/1037/ except with hurricans.

[tuto99]

Hurricane Sandy is currently a category 1 hurricane. Its current winds are at 75 mph, and is moving NNE at 9mph.
Hope that helps.

[atomic7732]

what category is Sandy?

or tropical storm?
or in between?

btw everyone here is like buying food and back-up generators like this is a cat. 6.

reminds me of
http://xkcd.com/1037/ except with hurricans.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ You should keep that link handy. Also http://www.nws.noaa.gov just click on your region and there will be information and things.



Sandy water you doing

[Darvince]

being tiny

[atomic7732]

tiny indeed...

[blotz]

just watched the new report. apperently, it's a special storm, a storm inside a storm, and it takes an odd path. never has this happened before

[smjjames]

Link bong?

It's also due to collide with a cold front moving south. To those Ubox forumers who live in the region (Fiah, Bong, and Mudkipz, among others), be careful out there when the storm rolls around.

It sounds kind of like that perfect storm thing from back in the 90's, except that one wasn't spawned by a merger of a hurricane and a cold front.

[Darvince]

my prediction: it will be like irene and everyone will be over-prepared

[blotz]

its a TV show.

btw darv is much strong than Irene, well, a lot closer.

also, im gonna make like 200 tin-foil boats if it floods, let them flow, and then pick them up after the storm.

yay seems like i have no school cuz of the storm

[tuto99]

Yeah, I'm experiencing strong gusts here.

[atomic7732]

It sounds kind of like that perfect storm thing from back in the 90's, except that one wasn't spawned by a merger of a hurricane and a cold front.

It was a merger of an extratropical storm and Hurricane Grace I think though.

my prediction: it will be like irene and everyone will be over-prepared

A lot of people are passing it off as over-hyped.

also, im gonna make like 200 tin-foil boats if it floods, let them flow, and then pick them up after the storm.

track their location

[Darvince]

well ofc i think it's over-hyped because i'm 4500km away from it.

[atomic7732]

Corrected: A lot of people that are going to be affected by it directly are passing it off as over-hyped.

[smjjames]

Corrected: A lot of people that are going to be affected by it directly are passing it off as over-hyped.

Two words: Hurricane Katrina.

It sounds kind of like that perfect storm thing from back in the 90's, except that one wasn't spawned by a merger of a hurricane and a cold front.

It was a merger of an extratropical storm and Hurricane Grace I think though.

Oh, I don't remember the specifics, but it was from multiple weather fromts colliding.

Edit: Checked the wiki and yeah it was. Also, this storm is taking place on the exact same time of year as the storm back in 1991, deja vu anybody?

my prediction: it will be like irene and everyone will be over-prepared

A lot of people are passing it off as over-hyped.

Didn't some say that about Hurricane Katrina?

Still, maybe it won't be so bad or maybe it will be bad, what's for sure is that it's an unusual collision of weather fronts.

[atomic7732]

From wiki, I think hurricane grace was actually weaker than hurricane sandy is now when it collided with the cold front, not sure.

The difference with Sandy is just that. Sandy will be the storm undergoing transition, Grace dissipated and then ran into an existing low as far as I know. The warm-core tropical remnants of Grace mixed with the non-tropical remnants and made a hybridish storm.

[Darvince]

tiny indeed...

sorry i only noticed the hurricane force

[blotz]

It sounds kind of like that perfect storm thing from back in the 90's, except that one wasn't spawned by a merger of a hurricane and a cold front.

It was a merger of an extratropical storm and Hurricane Grace I think though.

my prediction: it will be like irene and everyone will be over-prepared

A lot of people are passing it off as over-hyped.

also, im gonna make like 200 tin-foil boats if it floods, let them flow, and then pick them up after the storm.

track their location

track them?
im not even sure it'll flood here and i dont have tracker pills, you know.

but, ill think of a way



Edit: Nue do you know how often http://www.nhc.noaa.gov updates?

[atomic7732]

COnsidering Sandy will be nearing landfall it will start updating every 2 hours or so I think. Normally advisories are at 03, 09, 15, and 21 UTC.

[blotz]

according to this
storm is no gonna hit me

[blotz]

nue do you have any flooding charts?
(or is it even possible to graph floods)

[atomic7732]

no I doubt it.



wtf suddenly 75 kts.

Okay if state government offices are closed and my cities city offices are closed….. I’m thinking the hardware store I work at should be closed, right?

Yay capitalism!

[atomic7732]

80 knots, 943 hPa

[smjjames]

CNN said 90 kts and they're evacuating New York.

[atomic7732]

Pretty sure they said miles per hour. 80 kts = 90 mph

Code: [Select]

000
WTNT23 KNHC 291433
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  71.5W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  943 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE   0SE 150SW   0NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 200SW 150NW.
34 KT.......420NE 330SE 400SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 995SE 840SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N  71.5W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N  70.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 39.0N  74.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  60SE 150SW  60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 200SW 150NW.
34 KT...450NE 360SE 360SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 39.9N  76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 180SE 140SW  60NW.
34 KT...400NE 360SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 40.4N  77.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...360NE 360SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 41.5N  77.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 150SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 44.5N  75.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 45.9N  72.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 47.5N  68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N  71.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Code: [Select]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 291443
TCDAT3

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB.  BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK
OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.
AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND
27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA
LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN
WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES
THE COAST.  HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM.  BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 37.5N  71.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 39.0N  74.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1200Z 39.9N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0000Z 40.4N  77.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/1200Z 41.5N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1200Z 44.5N  75.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1200Z 45.9N  72.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1200Z 47.5N  68.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[smjjames]

Pretty sure they said miles per hour. 80 kts = 90 mph

Probably.