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atomic7732

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #120 on: June 19, 2011, 02:23:18 PM »
I don't want Media links, link me to official sources, CNN of all media people had an astrologer explain what the total lunar eclipse on the winter solstice meant, and bbc has done it's share of scientific errors too.

Nero

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #121 on: June 19, 2011, 02:41:30 PM »
how can you be so arrogant, i lived though it. The UK's average winter temperature is down, all the media are reporting are the temperatures as they were broke. It easy for you to say did you experience it ? .

Here is the met office with the final scientific analysis

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2009/winter.html
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2010/winter.html
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/winter.html

I'm sure you will manage to find something wrong with these. AS they dont fit into your perfect little anylsisi that everything is getting warmer. Despire the fact the UKs avergae winter temerature has been colder

atomic7732

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #122 on: June 19, 2011, 03:23:21 PM »
I'm not being arrogant. The media is overrated.

I don't know much about the UK, so I don't know how valid comparing Kinbrace with Wick Airport is (seems to be w/in 50 - 100 km of each other), but according to Kinbrace climatology (71-00), Wick was <1 C above average 2009, near average 2010, and near average 2011 (all January).

Also, you can't say global warming is affecting the UK the same as the rest of the world. That's like being in the downtown center of a city or at a store and asking 5 people their favorite sport/color/this/that and saying that the most revelant result is what everyone in that city or store's favorite thing is.

It's just too small of a sample. Weather patterns are different around the world depending on location. That's the one major thing anyone who tries to go against Global Warming should know.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2011, 03:37:36 PM by NeutronStar »

Nero

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #123 on: June 19, 2011, 04:33:28 PM »
I'm not going against global warming, but its funny how its the most malleable thing on Earth. First its going to cause rises in temps, then oscillations. Then we are told that the temperature could be colder elsewhere.  Let me say one thing, maybe scientist don't really have a clue whats going on. It is a FACT that temperatures around the globe are altering, i just think the human factor is been overstated. Ive know doubt we are damaging this planet, but the same people that complain would be the first to advocate colonization of other planets in the future and go on to ruin them. Temps are changing on all planets within the Sol System so its plain to see something is having a universal effect. This isnt just Mars is many planets throughout the system and it come from NASA themselves. It was said in a post further up that business are driven by profit. This goes for the green industry which would stand to lose substantially if Global Warming turned out to be incorrect.

Also ive no idea about Kinbrace but all the UK's temeprture and quntified by the Met Office

Winter 08/09 - The UK mean temperature for the winter was 3.2 °C, which is 0.5 °C below average, making it the coldest winter since 1996/97 (also 3.2 °C).

Winter 09/10 - The UK mean temperature for the winter was 1.6 °C, which is 2.0 °C below average, making it the coldest winter since 1978/79 (1.2 °C)

Winter 10/11 - The UK mean temperature for the winter as a whole was 2.4 °C, making it less cold than winter 2009/10 which was 1.6 °C but still the second-coldest winter since 1985/86 with 2.3 °C.

All that came from the Met office sources above. Its plain to see despite been warned by climotoligist the UK would be Warmer and "Snowfall would be a thing of the past" we have had three bitterly cold winters.

« Last Edit: June 19, 2011, 04:45:01 PM by Nero »

Nero

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #124 on: June 19, 2011, 04:46:51 PM »
A lovely picture of the severely snow bound UK taken i believe by NASA's Terra sattelite. Let me tell you it was cold enough last december i started the car one morning ready to drive to work. i drove about a mile and stopped at a petrol station to buy a newspaper. I got out of the car locked the door and ran into the shop. By the time id got back (2-3minutes) my door was frozen solid, it took me after 15 minutes of trying to unfreeze the door i had to climb through the passengers side. They were not fun days
« Last Edit: June 19, 2011, 04:52:39 PM by Nero »

Darvince

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #125 on: June 19, 2011, 05:02:21 PM »
What is this I don't even... There's new people every day defying global warming with either one small country or barely readable text.

Nero

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #126 on: June 19, 2011, 05:10:14 PM »
I'm not defying it with "barely readable text of a country" I'm saying i question it when its not following the pattern we were told it would on top of the fact other planets are also seeing temperature rises

Darvince

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #127 on: June 19, 2011, 05:15:31 PM »
No your text is very readable. Also, the solar cycle is most likely shutting down for at least 20 years.

Nero

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #128 on: June 19, 2011, 05:24:44 PM »
It will be interesting to see if the level of irradiance from the Sun decrease when the cycle stops and if so, do the temps drop back on the other planets. If that happened and ours kept a steady increase i would certainly rethink what i believe. However until someone can completely rule out the sun as the source of heating i stand firmly somewhere in the middle. As for the barely readable text thing, i don't get what you mean

Darvince

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #129 on: June 19, 2011, 05:29:57 PM »
Barely readable:

Quote
Take that government conspiracy!
OBJECTION!!! What about the $40,000 hybrid cars! Not to mention the ones that run off electricity only, electric bills would skyrocket! Also I see about 4-5 smart car's a day IN A SMALL CITY! Thats about $100,000 put into the car dealerships wallet. It's cars, lightbulbs, Solar Panels, government taxes, and lot's more. Al Gore has made A LOT of money on LIES. SANDWICHES OF LIES!!!! Food price is going up because of biofuel, causing riots in other countries. Energy prices are rising because our genius president won't let us drill oil off the coast because of a duck that got killed in an oil spill. OH MY GOD!!! SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING!!! CANCEL DUCK SEASON!!! And the worst part is that the poor are being most affected by lies about the earth warming up. And about Glaciers, they would melt toward the bottom a little bit, but a 2 degree rise won't change anything :P. So this whole global warming myth is just A BUSINESS!!! This is to make people money. I blame all this hype about it on Obama because all he cares about is the environment! You guys can worry about your fancy graphs and charts. By the way, it's a little known fact that 42.7% of statistics are made up on the spot. I believe NASA, but not the people that make this a business. 'Nuff said...


Nero

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #130 on: June 19, 2011, 05:49:30 PM »
Barely readable:

Quote
Take that government conspiracy!
OBJECTION!!! What about the $40,000 hybrid cars! Not to mention the ones that run off electricity only, electric bills would skyrocket! Also I see about 4-5 smart car's a day IN A SMALL CITY! Thats about $100,000 put into the car dealerships wallet. It's cars, lightbulbs, Solar Panels, government taxes, and lot's more. Al Gore has made A LOT of money on LIES. SANDWICHES OF LIES!!!! Food price is going up because of biofuel, causing riots in other countries. Energy prices are rising because our genius president won'ept let us drill oil off the coast because of a duck that got killed in an oil spill. OH MY GOD!!! SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING!!! CANCEL DUCK SEASON!!! And the worst part is that the poor are being most affected by lies about the earth warming up. And about Glaciers, they would melt toward the bottom a little bit, but a 2 degree rise won't change anything :P. So this whole global warming miyth is just A BUSINESS!!! This is to make people money. I blame all this hype about it on Obama because all he cares about is the environment! You guys can worry about your fancy graphs and charts. By the way, it's a little known fact that 42.7% of statistics are made up on the spot. I believe NASA, but not the people that make this a business. 'Nuff said...


Definitely agree with you here Darvince. Global warming is nothing to do with business. Clean fuel is to everyone's benefit regardless of the source of global warming. Air pollution effects everyone. Global warming isn't a business conspiracy, businesses can only sell hybrids and such if there is a market. If people didn't want them they plain wouldn't buy them

atomic7732

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #131 on: June 19, 2011, 06:44:09 PM »
Before you wait for the temps to drop on other planets, maybe look for quantized temperatures on other planets and compare them with Earth, and then see what ELSE could have caused it.

Dunkyy

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #132 on: July 12, 2011, 01:12:35 AM »
I don't mean to offend anyone, but a lot of you are extremely arrogant and uneducated about global warming.
Global warming is real, and it is happening now.

Do you really think that species that exist in the present day would be able to adapt or for lack of a better word 'evolve' in a matter of 300 years?
No.
Impossible, 300 years is just too short of a time for species to adapt to new climates.
Global warming is NOT a natural cycle, sure, CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been at least triple the amount of present days, but those amounts (about 900-1200ppm, present day is 394ppm) got to that stage over MILLIONS of years. Throughout the whole entirety of the earth's geophysical history, the rate at which carbon dioxide is rising has NEVER been seen.

I bet most of you haven't ever heard about 'Ocean Acidification'.
It's just as REAL as global warming.
It is going to happen, Coral reefs will die out, and massive ocean ecosystems will collapse.
I guess you could say Ocean Acidification is like the evil twin of Global Warming.

I have a bunch of graphs and such from a report I done recently if anyone needs clarification :)
By the way, I knew all that from my own head, in case one of you thinks that was plagiarized, haha :)

atomic7732

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #133 on: July 12, 2011, 12:29:55 PM »
Reports yay! Yay another person knows Global Warming is true.

I bet that just invalidated all my arguments above. lol

atomic7732

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #134 on: July 12, 2011, 03:34:49 PM »
Yeah, cause they totally do that. :-\

Dan Dixon

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #135 on: July 12, 2011, 05:41:47 PM »
In my opinion...I'll take it seriously as the extinction of all life on the planet when the spokesman for climate change hysteria does the following:

Pick up a damn phone or teleconference, versus leaving a home that uses the carbon footprint of a small city, to hop on a jet to fly across the ocean, in order to speak to groups of people that already agree with you, while your limo idles outside the venue for hours.
Al Gore, who I believe you are referring, is only one of many people who have pointed out the threat of climate change. Just because he and other well known people irresponsibly contribute more than their fair share greenhouse gasses to our atmosphere is not a good reason to discount the overwhelming evidence of human caused climate change collected by scientists.

There is vast consensus among atmospheric scientists that climate change is real and that it is caused by human activity. Among those that more more about our climate than any other group, there is relatively no argument that it is happening and that humanity's actions are the primary cause.

Most climate scientists agree the main cause of the current global warming trend is human expansion of the "greenhouse effect"1 -- warming that results when the atmosphere traps heat radiating from Earth toward space.
http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/

I bet most of you haven't ever heard about 'Ocean Acidification'.
It's just as REAL as global warming.
Ocean acidification is terrible and real.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_acidification
« Last Edit: July 12, 2011, 05:56:49 PM by Dan Dixon »

atomic7732

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #136 on: July 12, 2011, 07:30:54 PM »
Yeah there may be the skeptical super side to everything but that doesn't make the "reasonable" arguments invalid.

If you get what I mean.

Dan Dixon

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #137 on: July 13, 2011, 12:45:59 PM »
.... add in Climategate and the political aspects as well...and I think it's reasonable to be skeptical of the evidence.

You should take a moment to learn what the evidence is:
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
Sea levels are rising, global temperature is rising, oceans are warming, ice sheets are shrinking, and the ocean is acidifying. These realities have been measured; these are the facts.

Reguarding Climategate:
"Six committees investigated the allegations and published reports detailing their findings. Climate scientists were criticized for their disorganized methods, bunker mentality and lack of transparency, but none of the inquiries found evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_controversy

Consensus does not equate to truth.

That's fair. You're welcome to believe whatever you like, that doesn't make it true either.

If there was a consensus of scientists stating that an asteroid was going to hit Sacramento in a week but there was no evidence that any of them were leaving the area but were in fact buying new houses....that consensus doesn't mean a whole lot in of itself.

The destruction of Sacramento by a natural event is not the same as the slow warming of the Earth as caused by humans. Either way... I suspect you won't find any climate scientists making long term investments in low lying ocean front property.

Dan, by the way, what exactly are these "claims" you speak of that deny the possibility of HGW?

Several notable mythologies predict the end of the world as the greatest possible event that could ever occur. The long term effects of global warming become irrelevant for those that believe the end of the world will occur in their lifetime.

Or consider the comment made by Rep. John Shimkus (R-Ill.) who maintains that we do not have to worry about climate change because the deity he believes in promised, in the Bible, not to destroy the world again after Noah’s flood.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2011, 05:46:43 PM by Dan Dixon »

Bullethead

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #138 on: July 13, 2011, 09:13:29 PM »
Please forgive me for jumping in here late and not reading every single post that's gone before.  So I'm probably saying stuff that others have already said.

The destruction of Sacramento by a natural event is not the same as the slow warming of the Earth as caused by humans. Either way... I suspect you won't find any climate scientists making long term investments in low lying ocean front property.

I really have to question whether humans have any impact on climate.

First off, I read recently that the volcanic eruption in Iceland a month or 2 ago spewed more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in just 4 days than the total efforts of the entire human race have kept out of the atmosphere over the last 5 years.  And that was merely a reltaviely minor eruption from just 1 of about 200 active volcanos currently above sea level.  Thus, the idea that we could ever compete with volcanos, either in output of greenhouse gases or the elimination thereof, strikes me as quite impossible.  We're just insignificant in comparison, and all this is just one of many natural, geologic processes that are constantly pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at truly epic rates.  We're frequently discovering new ones which we didn't even know existed before, so all previous calculations of human impact didn't take them into account.

Second, about 1 AU away there's a totally unshielded nuclear reactor that's thousands of times larger (in terms of mass anyway) than this entire planet.  Given the difference in size, what is to the sun an insignificant blip in output has major effects here, and there's nothing we can do about that, either, short of building a Dyson Sphere around it, which I don't see happening any time soon.

Third, I really have to wonder why things were so warm back in the Cretacious period.  No ice caps to speak of at all, the whole central US under water, dinosaurs living on the North Slope of Alaska, etc., and not a human in existence until the last couple hundred thousand years.

Quote
Or consider the comment made by Rep. John Shimkus (R-Ill.) who maintains that we do not have to worry about climate change because the deity he believes in promised, in the Bible, not to destroy the world again after Noah’s flood.

I say we don't have to worry about climate change per se, but for different reasons:

1.  IMHO, we have no more power to stop or even slow climate change than we have to cause it in the 1st place.  I think it's pretty arrogant of humanity to claim to have that much effect on something as comparatively huge and powerful as the Earth, which itself is a grain of dust compared to the Sun.

2.  Before climate became politicized, the period just before the Little Ice Age was called the "Medieval Optimum".  Now it's called the "Medieval Warm Period".  It was called the "Optimum" with good reason, though.  Agriculture boomed, population exploded.  The Vikings could farm Greenland, the Pueblo Indians could farm the Colorado Plateau, and there was enough surplus in Europe to build most of the great cathedrals.  So it was around the world.  Times were quite good.  Thus, "global warming" seems like a good thing.  And from what I can tell, we're not quite as warm now as we were then, so you could say we're still recovering from the Little Ice Age and not going off on some new tangent.

3.  Wherever the equator is over land, there's jungle.  I keep hearing that jungles are the healthiest, most bio-diverse ecosystems on the planet.  So it seems to me that nature likes a hotter climate than pertains over most of the planet at present, and if things warm up, we'll get more bio-diversity.  Ain't that a good thing?  Sure, it'll suck to be a cold-specialized critter like a polar bear, but it's well-know that specialization is ALWAYS a shortcut to extinction no matter what the climate's doing.  So a few cold-specialists die off, but that'll be more than compensated for by the inrease in bio-diversity in the hotter areas.

HOWEVER, I do worry a lot about climate change politics.  There's no telling what dire effects that will have on my way of life due to idiotic, politically mandated changes rushed through by panic-mongers.  The classic example is the US's current mania for ethanol.  We had that crammed down our throats despite that fact that producing and using ethanol creates more greenhouse gases than using straight gasoline (there's a reason we burn gasoline--it's the best thing for the job, energy-wise).  So now all our fuel lines and gaskets are rotting away, are engines are gumming up, there's MORE greenhouse gases being produced, AND the prices of all other crops have skyrocketed because farmers are planting too much corn instead, so they can cash in on the government subsidies which are being taken out of my pocket as well.  Personally, I think there's a special place in Hell for those who'd burn good whiskey rather than drink it  ;D

But at the bottom line, for me it all boils down to this:  until weathermen can tell me with 100% accuracy whether it will rain on me tomorrow or not, I'll have great difficulty believing anything a climatologist says will happen years or centuries down the road.  Weathermen have been refining their art since the Neolithic for totally nonpolitical purposes.  Climatologists have only existed the last few decades at most, and have always had a huge political "cloud" hanging over their heads, so that makes them even less trustworthy than weathermen IMHO  ;D

Anyway, I hope no hard feelings here.  So let's drink some of our superfluity of whiskey and be friends <cheers>

dhm794

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #139 on: July 14, 2011, 08:28:06 PM »
Quote from: Nero
A lovely picture of the severely snow bound UK taken i believe by NASA's Terra sattelite. Let me tell you it was cold enough last december i started the car one morning ready to drive to work. i drove about a mile and stopped at a petrol station to buy a newspaper. I got out of the car locked the door and ran into the shop. By the time id got back (2-3minutes) my door was frozen solid, it took me after 15 minutes of trying to unfreeze the door i had to climb through the passengers side. They were not fun days

Climate change creates harsher winters.  Look at the evidence.

Dan Dixon

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #140 on: July 15, 2011, 12:18:44 PM »
1.  IMHO, we have no more power to stop or even slow climate change than we have to cause it in the 1st place.  I think it's pretty arrogant of humanity to claim to have that much effect on something as comparatively huge and powerful as the Earth, which itself is a grain of dust compared to the Sun.

I don't understand why you don't think we have the power to damage the Earth. We do and we are.

Have you reviewed the evidence?
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

... despite that fact that producing and using ethanol creates more greenhouse gases than using straight gasoline...

Climate scientists would agree with you. Ethanol is not good.

The use of ethanol was promoted and encouraged by the huge farm corporations and lobbing groups, not climate scientists.

Just because someone uses the fear of climate change to encourage a bad or immoral idea doesn't mean that human caused climate change isn't true.

But at the bottom line, for me it all boils down to this:  until weathermen can tell me with 100% accuracy whether it will rain on me tomorrow or not, I'll have great difficulty believing anything a climatologist says will happen years or centuries down the road.

Nothing in science is 100%.

And there is almost no doubt among climate scientists that the Earth will warm, on average, at least one additional degree Celsius, even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases today.

Climatologists have only existed the last few decades at most, and have always had a huge political "cloud" hanging over their heads, so that makes them even less trustworthy than weathermen IMHO  ;D

Climatologists are not inherently political and most of them are disgusted by the politicization of their field. You should be careful not to conflate their scientific claims from the claims of politicians who have been bought and paid for by corporations.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2011, 12:23:53 PM by Dan Dixon »

Dan Dixon

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #141 on: July 15, 2011, 05:07:58 PM »
Bob Carter, in the video you posted, is a geologist, not a climate scientist. Of course you can find videos of anyone saying anything... This doesn't change the actual evidence:

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Including the mythologies of some Scientists.
What mythologies are those?

I suspect that is a statement that you can not prove nor I can disprove.  I however have shown that the spokepeople have not changed their behaviour much.
Al Gore is a self appointed spokeperson. His behavior (contradictory or not) has no effect on the evidence.

So, you think global warming will destroy the world?
No.

I don't think he refuted that in regards to pollution.  He was just pointing out the fact that a couple of volcanic eruptions can and has caused just as much xyz to occur that equates to all that humanity has been able to muster.
I'd be curious to see the source of that claim.

I did find this from NASA:
"Man-made, or "anthropogenic" emissions can make the consequences of volcanic eruptions on the global climate system more severe."
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Volcano/

Don't forget Al Gore.
Al Gore is not a climate scientist. And as you have shown, he admits that his support for ethanol was in error.

As if the Climatologists are not bought and paid for by somebody.  They rely on who to support their research and their living?
Many of them rely on federal grants.

Bullethead

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #142 on: July 15, 2011, 09:16:26 PM »
Before we go any further, know that I am the proud owner a Prius.  I don't believe a word that comes out of Al Gore's mouth, but I do believe in gas prices  ;D

Also, I don't want to get on the bad side of the Great Architect of Universe Sandbox.  So please don't take personal offense at anything I say.  I'm just trying to live up to the title of this thread.

I don't understand why you don't think we have the power to damage the Earth. We do and we are.

Have you reviewed the evidence?
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

All I see there is evidence that the climate is changing, which is a no-brainer.  It always has, for billions of years before people came along, and it always will, at least up to when the Sun bloats up and eats Earth, billions of years after peoiple are gone.  Are we agreed so far?  Good :).

OK, next.  The earth has gone through EXTREME climate changes, many times, before we came along.  I'm talking from zero ice caps to the "snowball Earth" scenario, not to mention things like countless relatively benign (in comparison) ice ages.  All of these climate regimes were far more significant than anything going on in the entire span of recorded history, yet somehow the Earth not only got itself into them, it also managed to get itself out of them, all without any human intervention on either side of the change.  No human activity caused them, and no human activity corrected them.  Are we agreed on that?

If you agree with those 2 statements, then the necessary corrolary is that you must accept that there are 100% natural forces at work around us with the oft-proven ability to take Earth's climate back and forth from 1 end of the thermometer to the other any time they feel like it, whether people exist or not.  IOW, these 100% natural forces are far more powerful than even Al Gore's worst-case humanocentric propoganda, meaning that everything we do in either direction is by definition insignificant.  There's no getting around that.

So, sure, I'll buy that humans have an effect on climate; so does every other living thing.  But it seems quite obvious that in comparison to all the 100% natural forces, which we don't yet fully comprehend, much less can assign a measurable value to, that nothing we do can possibly have any significant effect.  And even if we really DO have a significant effect, there's no way at present to tell.

Quote
The use of ethanol was promoted and encouraged by the huge farm corporations and lobbing groups, not climate scientists.

At the time, the climatologists were all for ethanol and from what I can tell, most still are.  The falacy of ethanol was pointed out by legit scientists, when they could get a word in edgewise.  You know, folks with an understanding of thermodynamics, refining, industry, and other tangible, measurable things.  But note that despite this, ethanol hasn't gone away, because the government isn't going to give up the control its taken.  Why?  Because ethanol wasn't the acutal goal.  Government control over that much more of the nation's economy was.

That's why we still have ethanol, even though anybody with 1/2 a brain knows it's counterproductive to the very reasons given for enshrining it.  Doesn't that bother you?

Quote
Just because someone uses the fear of climate change to encourage a bad or immoral idea doesn't mean that human caused climate change isn't true.

Just because a climatologist says humans cause climate change doesn't make it true, either.  In fact, it's rather more likely to be false, given the state of climatology.

Quote
And there is almost no doubt among climate scientists that the Earth will warm, on average, at least one additional degree Celsius, even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases today.

They know what side their bread's buttered on.  As far as I can tell, the so-called "scientific consensus" about human-caused climate change is unique to climatologitsts.  Meanwhile, most real scientists are ranged against them.  They just don't get much press due to the media being on the same side as the politicians, and even when they make themselves heard, they're laughed off without any debate bacause they're heretics to the Holy Scientific Consensus.

I said above that we don't know what all in the 100% natural world affects climate, and for those forces we do know about, we don't fully understand how they work or the magnitude of their effects.  For instance, NOBODY KNOWS what caused any of the ice ages, or what caused and ended "Snowball Earth", or the various times like the Cretaceous when things were quite the opposite.  Sure, there are many theories, but nothing definite at all.

Think about what this means from the standpoint of true science.  Because of all these unknowns, there is NO SUCH THING as an accurate climate model, because none of them contain all the factors involved.  And even climatologists admit that none of their computer simulations can replicate all the known points in Earth's historical climates at various times, because they can't figure out what caused them in real life.

Now, in any legitimate field of science, this would be totally unacceptable.  It's the exact equivalent of a so-called "theory" failing to explain all existing observations.  In legit scientific fields, such so-called "theories" are laughed out of court.  In the immortal words of Nobel physicist Wolfgang Pauli, such theories are so bad that they "aren't even wrong".  Before a theory can even be wrong, it first has to explain all observations so far.  Only this gives it any chance of predicting future observations, and it's only in failing in its predictions that a theory becomes wrong.  This is the fate of most theories so is the expected outcome--oh well, it was a good try; back to the chalkboard.  Being wrong is a badge of honor, because the theory was good enough to get that far.

But current climate models can't get that far because they can't even explain the past.  As such, they're not real theories in the scientific sense and are utterly worthless from a truly scientific POV.

Compare climatology to physics and cosmology.  Newton's laws worked perfectly well in the conditions of their day, explaining all past observations and correctly predicting all new ones out to the limits of observational capabilities.  But as we learned to see farther and measure things more precisely, we found that Newton was "wrong" (in the Pauli sense).  So then there was Einstein, and after nearly 100 years he's apparently "wrong", too, but we haven't yet figured out the next "right" thing.  But the important point is, in their day, both Newton and Einstein were "right", accounting for all past observations and all future ones we could make at the time.

Climatology is backwards to this.  Whereas the real scientific theories were at least "right" until finer observations showed their flaws, climatology can't even explain the observations we already have.  Climatology is thus like trying to apply Newton to an Einsteinian data set.  Or, to be more accurate, it's like applying Ptolomey rather than Newton, given the Medieval humanocentric perspective of climatology.  Therefore, no legit scientist, let alone a layman, can use these so-called climate theories to make any scientifically meaningful statement about how much humanity is affecting climate, or even if we are at all.   IMHO, you should be shocked, dismayed, and frightened that so many people take such unscientific garbage so seriously.  I know I am.

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Climatologists are not inherently political and most of them are disgusted by the politicization of their field. You should be careful not to conflate their scientific claims from the claims of politicians who have been bought and paid for by corporations.

And you should be careful of blaming everything on corporations, most of whom are suffering mightily under the tyranny of "green" legislation and are flat against it.  Climatology is a political tool, pure and simple.  Always has been, always will be.  :D

What is now climatology began in the Cold War as the Soviet-fostered environmental movement.  The whole thing was a scheme to get the Western countries to destroy their own economies.  But the "green" movement went viral and so outlived the Soviet Union, and is today perpetuated by other wannabe tyrants who seek government control over all sectors of the economy.

The goal of the left has always been the same--sell a majority of the people a line of BS that will cause them to give up all their rights and freedoms to government control.  All that's changed over time has been the line of BS used.  With communism never having had a big appeal over here and discredited by the collapse of the Soviet Union, the left cast about for a new brand of snake oil and hit on the "green" thing.  This is brilliant, really, because 1) it can masquerade as a non-political issue affecting everybody equally regardless of ideology, and 2) it can be made to look credible by proper media management, because most people don't know anything about real science so can't refute the allegations of climatologists.  And that's why I fear it.

An important thing to note is that there is no job for a climatologist in the private sector for the simple reason that nobody makes business decisions or vacation plans based on what the weather might be doing decades or centuries down the road.  Thus, like most other unproductive people, all climatologists work for the government; climatology itself wouldn't even exist without the government.  Sure, some climatologists might get paychecks from private firms or universities, but they're all funded by the government directly or leftist lobby groups.  Do you honestly think there's any chance that this money didn't come with strings attached?  Of course there isn't, any more than federal highway funds give states carte blanche on using them.  No climatologist is given a blank check and told to find out what's really happening.  Instead, they're told to find evidence of human impact on climate while ignoring everything else.  So, climatologists know they have to say what their political sponsors want to hear or they'll be out on the street.

Now, I'm not at all accusing every climatologist of being a willing political shill.  I'm sure there are quite a few, a least in the lower ranks, who don't realize what's going on, perhaps because they're the naive, left-indoctrinated, corporation-hating type drawn to the field in the 1st place.  But even if they do figure it out and are appalled, they're not in position to do anything about it, and their dissents are either drowned out by the so-called "scientific consensus" or result in their termination.

There's no way this will ever change, either, because the whole field depends entirely on politically targeted funding and will for the foreseeable future.  Thus. climatology will always be a collection of politically motivated, apocalyptic prophecies based on "not even wrong" theories derived from cherry-picked data.  The only way this will change is if private industry gets into terraforming planets.  Then there will be a good business reason to study long-term climate change in an unbiased manner, and that will finally turn climatology into a legit science.  But it won't happen here on Earth.

Arnstein

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #143 on: July 16, 2011, 01:46:01 AM »
I find it funny that many people are so self-centered that they think global warming will destroy "the world"(by that I think they mean the earth). The earth will probably continue to exist as long as the Sun exists. Human beings, however, might find it hard to survive as a species when the earths climate changes. Just look at all the food sources that are being destroyed lately by extreme weather for an example. This will definitely hurt us as a species. I'm sure some living beings will be able to adapt and survive no matter what happens though. And if not, the earth will still keep spinning around the sun. I really want human beings to survive and live on this beautiful planet though, and it can be done, if we try.

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #144 on: July 16, 2011, 09:04:44 AM »
I find it funny that many people are so self-centered that they think global warming will destroy "the world"(by that I think they mean the earth). The earth will probably continue to exist as long as the Sun exists. Human beings, however, might find it hard to survive as a species when the earths climate changes. Just look at all the food sources that are being destroyed lately by extreme weather for an example. This will definitely hurt us as a species.

I don't know if there's more famine today than at any other time in history.  I mean, there have always been droughts, floods, storms, freezes, locust plagues, or whatever, wiping out crops sometimes for years at a time.  We have records on this going back to the invention of writing.  But today, we just are more continually aware of them happening because of improvements in communications technology and having more eyes to see with.

This same increase in currently available planetary status info applies to all sorts of other phenomena as well, such as the number of hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, etc.  That is, it's only been in the last 1/2 century or so that we've been able to collect anything approaching the full data set for each year's activity, and even so we still don't get it all.  Going back in time before say 1950, the amount of data we have rapidly peters out within another century at most, except in a few highly populated and highly literate places in the world.  And even those peter out in a few more centuries.  From there back to the dawn or recorded history, we only know about things that coincidentally happened in front of an observer who took the time to note the event, and whose work has survived to the present.  And even then, often there are no useful measurements in the data so the magnitude of the event has to be guesstimated.  Everything else went unnoticed at the time or its record has been lost, so from our POV today, it didn't occur at all.

Some of these undocumented events are discovered by scientists working on something else than climatology.  Siesmologists, vulcanologists, geologists, etc., who by digging around for their own purposes have noticed the scars.  And they've discovered some monster events that slipped by at the time without notice, such as an apparent magnitude 8-9 earthquake off the US Pacific NW in the early 1700s, all sorts of volcanic eruptions previously unknown, and a number of major hurricanes.  None of which, of course, were noticed by climatologists, so have never figured in their so-called theories.

The upshot is, assertions by climatologists that there are more bad things happening now than ever before are scientifically ludicrous because, except for the last few decades, there is an insufficiency or even a complete lack of data to support such a claim.  We do not know (and never will know) enough about the weather of even 100 years ago make any legitimate comparison between then and now, and the further back in time you want to look, the worse the data becomes.

Of course, it's equally absurd to claim that things are no worse now than ever, for the same reason, which is why you don't often hear such a claim being made.  Respectable scientists can't take a stand on the issue either way because they know there's insufficient data.  This leaves the field free to the unscientific political shills of climatology, whose doom-and-gloom assertions, in the absence of rebuttal, take on the semblance of truth to the ignorant masses.

All that legit scientists can do is attack climatology itself for the bad science it unquestionably is.  To an educated person, this is the most damning attack possible:  climatology "isn't even wrong".  Problem is, most folks ain't educated in science enough to realize this.  Instead, they see that OT1H, the climatologists are offering their evidence, while OTOH, the legit scientists aren't offering counter-evidence, but are pedantically nitpicking at climatology itself.  Therefore, the assumption they naturally draw is:  "Are you a climatologist?  No?  Then don't tell a climatologist how to do his job."

Arnstein

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #145 on: July 18, 2011, 11:59:37 AM »
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I find it funny that many people are so self-centered that they think global warming will destroy "the world"(by that I think they mean the earth).


"self-centered"...that isn't the word that comes to my mind.  I am not aware of anyone that thinks that the actual earth will be destroyed, as in no longer existing.  I think it's more on the lines of no longer becoming habitable for current life.

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I really want human beings to survive and live on this beautiful planet though, and it can be done, if we try.

Good to know Hal.  I think there are very few human beings that don't want humanity to exist, so you are in the majority.

Sure, but they still don't act like it.

Dan Dixon

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #146 on: July 18, 2011, 02:53:38 PM »
Human activity is causing climate change. The evidence is clear:
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

I read recently that the volcanic eruption in Iceland a month or 2 ago spewed more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in just 4 days than the total efforts of the entire human race have kept out of the atmosphere over the last 5 years.
This is totally false.

"Humans release roughly 135 times more carbon dioxide annually than volcanoes do. ... Put another way, humans emit in under three days the amount that volcanoes typically release in a year."
Source

These 100% natural forces are far more powerful than even Al Gore's worst-case humanocentric propoganda, meaning that everything we do in either direction is by definition insignificant.
Also totally false.

Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is higher than it's been in the last half million years and it's increasing at a dramatically unnatural rate. This is because of industrial activities over the last 150 years.

At the time, the climatologists were all for ethanol and from what I can tell, most still are.
Wrong.

Climatologists, generally, are not in favor of ethanol. Ethanol was mostly promoted by huge farm corporations, farm lobbyists, and the politicians these groups contributed to.

Meanwhile, most real scientists are ranged against [climatologists].
False.

Climate science is a real science and atmospheric scientists are real scientists. I suspect your bias against climate scientists is because you disagree with their conclusions (because they don't agree with your political ideology).

Scientists Agree Human-Induced Global Warming Is Real, Survey Says

Corporations, most of whom are suffering mightily under the tyranny of "green" legislation and are flat against it.
Corporate profits are at an all time high. Corporations are not suffering.

I don't think that corporations should be able to release pollution into our air or water in order to maximize their profits. I find it so odd that people defend the actions of corporations who damage our environment and home.

No climatologist is given a blank check and told to find out what's really happening. Instead, they're told to find evidence of human impact on climate while ignoring everything else.
Not true.

Climate scientists are often funded with grants from NASA, the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, and others. They are not told to look only for the human impact and ignore everything else as you suggest.

In fact, several years ago, a NASA climate expert claims that he was told not to discuss the dangerous consequences of global warming. Source

Because of all these unknowns, there is NO SUCH THING as an accurate climate model, because none of them contain all the factors involved.
This is a false dilemma.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_dilemma

Just because there are many things that atmospheric scientists don't understand doesn't mean that their climate models aren't representative of what will happen (or that it's totally wrong).

Humans are pumping massive amounts of carbon dioxide into our atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and traps the heat of the Sun. This is, and will, cause our planet to warm. This is a fact.



Also, I don't want to get on the bad side of the Great Architect of Universe Sandbox.  So please don't take personal offense at anything I say.
No worries. I hope the same it true for you.
« Last Edit: July 18, 2011, 04:11:30 PM by Dan Dixon »

atomic7732

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #147 on: July 18, 2011, 03:15:45 PM »
One note, climatologists/climate scientists, though they may not be able to predict anything 100% (you try it, I'm serious), if anyone ever will, doesn't mean you can discredit global warming. You're gonna need different evidence.

(Directed at, I think... phinehas)

Dan Dixon

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #148 on: July 19, 2011, 04:01:43 PM »
Good questions phinehas.

Is this even a correct statement? large changes in climate, geologically-speaking being in the tens of years...versus thousands? Doesn't seem right.
How this happens is currently being debated among climate scientists.

It may have to do with chaos in the system, and feedbacks that amplify small changes. One theory has to do with sudden glacial outwash into the North Atlantic, which could turn off the meridional overturning circulation.

"Carbon dioxide emissions: Volcanoes also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas, which has a warming effect. For about two-thirds of the last 400 million years, geologic evidence suggests CO2 levels and temperatures were considerably higher than present."

So which is it....CO2 levels were considerably higher than present or we are at record levels since 1950?
We are at record levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) given the past 0.5 million years, but not for the past 400 million years. The Earth was much hotter than it is now when the dinosaurs lived, for example. The heating of the Earth isn't going to destroy the Earth, but it is going to cause massive changes to our environment that humanity will have to deal with. As the world warms, the ocean levels will continue to rise (particularly toward the equator, where many of the poorest people live). This will flood cities and farmland causing famine and displacing tens of millions of people.

So if you want to look at the problem economically, would it be cheaper to limit the emission of CO2 or would it be cheaper to deal with the costs of emitting the CO2?

Why not just compare based on ice cores alone?  If ice cores are sufficient to show past CO2 for thousands and millions of years, it should be for hundreds and decades.
When you can arrive at the same result with different methods of discovery (CO2 concentration, in this example), you provide corroboration that the methods are producing accurate results.

Ok, besides the debates about whether global warming is AGW [human caused global warming] or not...let's look at the solutions to the problem.

It looks like everyone wants to deal with the emissions end but what about dealing with the problem via the "sinks"?
Another good question.

So you accept that the Earth is warming and that this will be a problem and that trapping CO2 is the solution, but you don't think that humans are responsible?

How could humans not be responsible when they dump such massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere?

"Global combustion of fossil fuels and other materials places almost 7 billion tons of carbon, in the form of CO2, into the atmosphere each year. On average, Earth's oceans, trees, plants and soils absorb about one-half of this carbon. The balance remains in the air and is responsible for the annual increase."
Source

Dan Dixon

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Re: Global Warming - What's your point of view?
« Reply #149 on: July 20, 2011, 03:04:18 PM »
It comes down basically to overpopulation.  The two scenarios are due to my skeptical feeling of the motivations behind dealing with it.  This whole AGW is either legitimate and there are righteous motivations behind it or AGW is just one more way of attempting to control the population.
Or human caused global climate change is legitimate but it's presented by manipulative corporations as "government takeover" because they want to be able to do whatever they want.

It's similar to Net Neutrality. Corporations claim that it's a government takeover of the internet, which is the exact opposite of the truth. Net Neutrality is about protecting everyone from both government and corporate restriction (censorship) of the internet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_neutrality

I think the world is shaped by an oligarchy and quite frankly, I don't trust them...
I agree that corporations have too much power. They are allowed to influence our politicians and write our laws. It's not specifically government that we should be afraid of, but manipulative corporate control of government.

Notice how Wall Street wrecked our economy and yet no one went to jail.

Academia is similar to the military in that a legitimate need for self defense has turned into the military-industrial complex.
Climate scientists and academics are not getting rich from promoting the results of their findings. Where the military-industrial complex does profit from promoting war.

I think the latter.  You said it yourself, the poor around the world will be affected the most.  Economic losses of the poor are not greater than the economic losses of the wealthy.  One only has to look at GDP around the globe to figure that out.
In the United States, we'll be generally fine if the world warms. We can pay more for food and build infrastructure to protect ourselves from rising oceans. The poor countries cannot. I suppose it will be cheaper to deal with the consequences if you're only worried about the top economic tier of humanity, however I believe that every human life has equal value.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2011, 03:45:19 AM by Dan Dixon »