Author Topic: 99942 Apophis Future impact on Earth (Read 21129 times)

Naru523 · « **on:** July 27, 2009, 03:52:26 PM »

Close approach of Apophis on April 13, 2029. (In Universe Sandbox, their is a simulation of this.)

Path of risk where 99942 Apophis may impact Earth in 2036.

"99942 Apophis (pronounced /əˈpɒfɪs/, previously known by its provisional designation 2004 MN4) is a near-Earth asteroid that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 because initial observations indicated a small probability (up to 2.7%) that it would strike the Earth in 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth or the Moon in 2029. However, a possibility remains that during the 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole, a precise region in space no more than about 600 meters across, that would set up a future impact on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept the asteroid at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006. It broke the record for the highest level on the Torino Scale, being, for only a short time, a level 4, before it was lowered."

Source images and more info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

monmarfori · « **Reply #1 on:** July 27, 2009, 08:52:31 PM »

A 2037 impact was possible.

atomic7732 · « **Reply #2 on:** July 27, 2009, 08:54:11 PM »

The 2027 and 2036 has WAY more likelyhood of happening.

monmarfori · « **Reply #3 on:** July 27, 2009, 09:06:01 PM »

Know that it will kill people. and most possible idea is to go down to millions.

atomic7732 · « **Reply #4 on:** July 27, 2009, 09:11:50 PM »

It's not that big of an asteroid. It's .27 km and somewhere, (no link because I forgot where) heard the it could only wipe out a city to a state sized area.

Bla · « **Reply #5 on:** July 28, 2009, 12:24:00 AM »

The dangerous things from comets etc. is how much dust it will whirl up when it hits. It will block for the sunlight and by that kill many things.

monmarfori · « **Reply #6 on:** July 28, 2009, 01:20:56 AM »

But some strong tropical cyclones form when after the impact.

Naru523 · « **Reply #7 on:** July 28, 2009, 11:21:54 AM »

Could be, it will shoot down to the islands near the Sahara Desert.

atomic7732 · « **Reply #8 on:** July 28, 2009, 11:44:56 AM »

Quote from: monmarfori on July 28, 2009, 01:20:56 AM

But some strong tropical cyclones form when after the impact.

Link, please? I've never heard of that. That doesn't make any sense (logical sense at least).

FGFG · « **Reply #9 on:** July 28, 2009, 01:51:41 PM »

Well, there is a sense...

Maybe (my deduction) the impact in the ocean will worm the surrounding water and rise tons and tons of steam in the atmosphere...

monmarfori · « **Reply #10 on:** July 28, 2009, 02:58:02 PM »

Depending on its ocean temperature. if it rose over 50 c high. it is a hypercane.

atomic7732 · « **Reply #11 on:** July 28, 2009, 03:50:40 PM »

If it was created lol.

monmarfori · « **Reply #12 on:** July 28, 2009, 08:44:00 PM »

When Apophis will look like the size of the Yucatan asteroid. it would be very catastrophic.

atomic7732 · « **Reply #13 on:** July 28, 2009, 09:21:31 PM »

It won't it cant change size.

(That quick or very dramatically at least)

FGFG · « **Reply #14 on:** July 29, 2009, 04:46:45 AM »

What is really important is not dimension but mass, and astronomers know it as we couldn't calculate its path

atomic7732 · « **Reply #15 on:** July 29, 2009, 11:39:20 AM »

Explain? They know it's mass because we can't calculate it's orbit?

FGFG · « **Reply #16 on:** July 29, 2009, 11:43:49 AM »

No, I explained it badly: if astronomers didn't know the mass of it, I don't think they could have calculated its orbit in a so precise way.

atomic7732 · « **Reply #17 on:** July 29, 2009, 11:52:16 AM »

MAss shouldn't have to do with orbit. Should it?

FGFG · « **Reply #18 on:** July 29, 2009, 01:05:02 PM »

Well what is important is the sum of the masses. The mass of an asteroid compared to the masses of the planets is really small, but actually i don't know if it is important to anticipate where Apophis will go or what it will hit.

Dan Dixon · « **Reply #19 on:** July 29, 2009, 04:31:29 PM »

Quote from: NeutronStar on July 29, 2009, 11:52:16 AM

Mass shouldn't have to do with orbit. Should it?

As I understand it:
For something as small as Apophis being tugged on by the Earth and the Sun you can calculate a decently accurate trajectory without having to consider its mass. While it does affect the orbit of the Sun and Earth it's such a small amount that it's negligible.

When the scientists calculated Apophis' path I'm not sure if they considered its mass or not.

'Dust' in Universe Sandbox works without considering its mass (the rings around Saturn for example). It's considered to be massless and is only effected by the masses of everything else.

Apophis is about 270m in diameter and has a mass of 2.1 Ã— 10¹⁰ kg (21000000000 kg) which seems really heavy, but isn't compared with the Earth.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis

monmarfori · « **Reply #20 on:** July 29, 2009, 08:46:13 PM »

I found a mistake in Reply#19. Wheter is Aphophis. that is a wrong spelling. The correct one is Apophis.

Dan Dixon · « **Reply #21 on:** July 30, 2009, 01:13:56 AM »

Quote from: monmarfori on July 29, 2009, 08:46:13 PM

I found a mistake in Reply#19. Wheter is Aphophis. that is a wrong spelling. The correct one is Apophis.

Thanks. Fixed.

Naru523 · « **Reply #22 on:** August 05, 2009, 03:45:59 PM »

I think the impact could be creating tidal waves, going to North & South America, Africa, ?Europe?. and ?Antartica?.

rottweiler07 · « **Reply #23 on:** August 18, 2009, 04:00:00 PM »

About the simulation in US. There is a problem. Whenever I try to zoom in on apophis the screen starts shaking and the simulation fails. This only happens when I zoom in. Is it the time step or a bug?

Dan Dixon · « **Reply #24 on:** August 18, 2009, 04:32:27 PM »

Quote from: rottweiler07 on August 18, 2009, 04:00:00 PM

About the simulation in US. There is a problem. Whenever I try to zoom in on apophis the screen starts shaking and the simulation fails. This only happens when I zoom in. Is it the time step or a bug?

This is a bug that will be fixed (or maybe I already fixed it; I know I've looked into it) in the next release.

It's because the 'Earth' is set to the "center of the universe' which means that all trails and movement are relative to the Earth (and this math isn't centering the view properly). If you click in empty space and press 'P' it will remove Earth as the center and zooming in on Apophis won't shake.

Either way... Thanks for letting me know.

hbmp88 · « **Reply #25 on:** August 19, 2009, 12:41:06 AM »

Yess this temds to happen with objects moving quickly or when objecst are light years apart

monmarfori · « **Reply #26 on:** August 19, 2009, 01:12:32 AM »

Quote from: rottweiler07 on August 18, 2009, 04:00:00 PM

About the simulation in US. There is a problem. Whenever I try to zoom in on apophis the screen starts shaking and the simulation fails. This only happens when I zoom in. Is it the time step or a bug?

When the simulation fails. it means Universe Sandbox crashes.

hbmp88 · « **Reply #27 on:** August 19, 2009, 01:38:32 AM »

Sometimes it has to do with the time step, zooming in on a dense high mass object, an object traveling at high speeds, and objects far apart. Generally computer stumping situations. Typically too much for the computer to handle. Occasionally it will crash but only if you continue to zoom in. That's what I think because this happens a lot to me.

atomic7732 · « **Reply #28 on:** August 19, 2009, 04:08:27 PM »

Quote from: monmarfori on August 19, 2009, 01:12:32 AM

Quote from: rottweiler07 on August 18, 2009, 04:00:00 PM
About the simulation in US. There is a problem. Whenever I try to zoom in on apophis the screen starts shaking and the simulation fails. This only happens when I zoom in. Is it the time step or a bug?
When the simulation fails. it means Universe Sandbox crashes.

We know.