Author Topic: NE Pacific Weather Tracking/Study (Read 138558 times)

atomic7732 · « **on:** August 09, 2011, 09:44:09 PM »

Quote

I thought I'd make a topic for this. I'll be posting some graphics daily at around the same time, or at least the images will be. Help out with whatever... talk about weather events as well here... I don't want to hog every post in this topic.

In today's I don't really know what 5 is doing but it might be a bit subtropical (on visible and IR wavelengths)? I'm no expert, but I guess we'll just have to watch and wait.

Locations:
Code: [Select]
SYSTEM - MMDDHHMM LATN LONGW PRES EXTRATROP 1 - 08100000 50xN 123xW 1006 EXTRATROP 5 - 08100000 445N 1545W 1021 EUGENE - 08100000 21xN 1215W xxxx
Sources:
Image - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/ - Satellite Services Divison
Designations - http://nhc.noaa.gov/ - Tropical Prediction Center / National Hurricane Center
Pressure data and existence of surface lows - http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Ocean Prediction Center
Locations - My eyes
Upper level lows - My knowledge of water vapor imagery interpretation

I intend to turn this into a rightfully compiled list of official data sources as well as my personal graphic for it, but I will have a personal touch, for example, any anomalies in the data (missed subtropical cyclones, other interesting bits). I don't know how legit this will be if I find a subtropical cyclone or something and wikipedia or something needs a source, or anything. We'll have to see how this turns out in the next few days and what I decide to do with it.

Pacific Windstorm Name List [PDF] (has name origins and contributors and looks nice)

Windstorm Track File - for editing best tracks and updating

some useful sources would be http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/ASCATData.php, CIMSS' satellite derived windspeeds, and the Ocean Prediction Center

nws mesonet (goes back 7 days)

this post explains how to use McIDAS V.

Definition of a nameable extratropical cyclone:
1. It must have winds at or above 35kt in its near vicinity.
2. It must have a low pressure center.
3. The low's outermost closed isobar must be 8 hPa higher than the minimum at the center.
4. It must be within the Northeast Pacific basin*.
5. Exceptions may be made for storms near the Northeast Pacific basin that are already notable.

*Definition of the Northeast Pacific basin: It is the region of ocean between 180Â° and 110Â°W, 20Â°N and the continental divide of North America, and the Bering Sea west of 180Â°.

Darvince · « **Reply #1 on:** August 20, 2015, 05:18:05 PM »

hey you said you're gonna do this this winter gogogogo

atomic7732 · « **Reply #2 on:** August 20, 2015, 09:48:03 PM »

it no is winter tho

Darvince · « **Reply #3 on:** August 20, 2015, 10:13:35 PM »

extratropicals exist all year

atomic7732 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 26, 2015, 11:47:49 AM »

ur face exists all year

Darvince · « **Reply #5 on:** August 30, 2015, 10:24:39 AM »

yeah it does

also the season should start at september cuz that's when extratropicals start being like 'hello' again

atomic7732 · « **Reply #6 on:** August 30, 2015, 10:46:54 AM »

Darvince · « **Reply #7 on:** August 30, 2015, 11:08:34 AM »

you were also like "blahblahblah extratrops are weak crap 99% of the time" so you could track only ones that reach TS winds or something

atomic7732 · « **Reply #8 on:** August 30, 2015, 12:35:12 PM »

only surface lows with TS winds might be pretty good criteria yeah

~~all we have to do now is name them~~

Darvince · « **Reply #9 on:** August 30, 2015, 01:27:10 PM »

pretty sure weather channel has a nor'easter name list

atomic7732 · « **Reply #10 on:** August 30, 2015, 01:34:00 PM »

yes i'm not going to name them i want Extratropical Cyclone 67

Darvince · « **Reply #11 on:** August 30, 2015, 02:23:13 PM »

kolok

atomic7732 · « **Reply #12 on:** August 30, 2015, 05:20:42 PM »

help me draft a name list thanks

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1NKkxNAIFPl2ORE3zm23nhRf3qNTVlQbRgqKLcxcZ0N4/viewform

atomic7732 · « **Reply #13 on:** August 30, 2015, 08:59:17 PM »

an example of a daily or so summary

Code: [Select]

WINDSTORM WARNINGS FOR THE TEMPERATE & POLAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC
ON SUN 20150831 AT 03Z

THIS IS AN EXAMPLE PRODUCT. NOT FOR OFFICIAL WARNING USE.

NONE VALID

HURRICANE WARNING 013
SEVERE WINDSTORM BORAT (02)
LOCATED NEAR 00N 000W
MAX INTENSITY 70KT
MOVING 20KT NE IN THE NEXT 24HR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BOUND BY/SITUATED ALONG
STORM FORCE WINDS BOUND BY/SITUATED ALONG
GALE FORCE WINDS BOUND BY/SITUATED ALONG

GALE WARNING 001
WINDSTORM CAROL (03)

EX-WINDSTORM ASAALUK (01)

SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS
LOW 981 HPA NEAR 57N 135W 
MOVING NE SLOWLY

Darvince · « **Reply #14 on:** August 30, 2015, 09:00:32 PM »

sexy

can i get in on this

atomic7732 · « **Reply #15 on:** August 30, 2015, 09:01:08 PM »

~~sure what do you want to do~~

you're hired we start tomorrow

my general plan is that we'll write a daily summary if there are no windstorms, and probably summarize what happened. for example, "significant low <pressure> <location> moved <blah blah> since the last summary, or formed, or dissipated" and if it is likely to become a windstorm or not

if there are storms then probably issue 2 or 3 gale/storm/hurricane warning a day but i'm not sure what the timing for that would be. i don't expect us to do shifts or anything like that so it'll basically just be after a certain elapsed time if you can get to it, go for it.

some useful sources would be http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php/ASCATData.php, CIMSS' satellite derived windspeeds, and the Ocean Prediction Center

atomic7732 · « **Reply #16 on:** August 31, 2015, 07:58:46 AM »

oh you know what i am going to do

adapt my TC tracking tool to work for this

also we could keep internal tracks updated to every 6 (or even 3, since fast moving?) hours even if no warning was issued for a particular time

like gray (pre- or ex-windstorm), yellow (gale), orange (storm), reddish-pink (hurricane)

Darvince · « **Reply #17 on:** August 31, 2015, 12:09:11 PM »

do extratropical systems ever get circulations where the windspeed around the low is greater than 34kt

atomic7732 · « **Reply #18 on:** August 31, 2015, 02:47:36 PM »

what do you mean

atomic7732 · « **Reply #19 on:** August 31, 2015, 06:09:50 PM »

Code: [Select]

WINDSTORM WARNINGS FOR THE TEMPERATE & POLAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC
ON MON 20150901 AT 00Z
VALID UNTIL TUE 20150902 AT 00Z

GALE WARNING 001
WINDSTORM ASAALUK (01)
LOCATED NEAR 57.0N 140.0W ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM A NEARBY LOW
MAX INTENSITY 40KT
CENTRAL PRESSURE 990HPA
MOVING 15KT SE
WEAKENING 5KT PER 12HR & FILLING
GALE FORCE WINDS SITUATED NEAR/ALONG 51N 142W 55N 148W

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ANALYZED

- KALASSAK

our first gale warning

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/windsat_images/wdsp_cur/zooms_noaa/WMBds6_noaa.png

and a picture of Asaaluk at 0z

atomic7732 · « **Reply #20 on:** August 31, 2015, 11:34:53 PM »

Code: [Select]

WINDSTORM BRIEFING
AT 06Z UTC ON MON 20150901 WINDSTORM ASAALUK WAS LOCATED NEAR 55.5N 138.0W
HOLDING INTENSITY

- KALASSAK

if dar has time he can issue a thing, i'll make these briefings a... well, brief... track update in case no one issues full warnings

Darvince · « **Reply #21 on:** September 01, 2015, 12:23:58 AM »

do you know of anywhere that has raw data from the GOES satellites (like legitimately raw data) so we can get better pictures of them

Code: [Select]

ON MON 20150901 AT 06Z
VALID UNTIL TUE 20150902 AT 06Z

GALE WARNING 002
WINDSTORM ASAALUK (01)
LOCATED NEAR 58N 139W AS OF 06Z
MAX INTENSITY 35KT
CENTRAL PRESSURE 993MB
MOVING 12KT SE
WEAKENING 5KT PER 12HR & FILLING
GALE FORCE WINDS EXTANT NEAR LAST ADVISORY'S WARNING

PROBABLY GOING TO MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHERN BC COAST IN TWO DAYS
WATCH IGNACIO FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE THIS WEEK

- DARVINCE

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_META/zooms/WMBds24.png
wow caps lock

also how the frick did you get how fast it's moving

atomic7732 · « **Reply #22 on:** September 01, 2015, 07:32:44 AM »

poor estimate

though you can estimate because a degree of latitude is approximately 60 nmi at all times

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/mcidas/software/v/ might be a good idea actually, i didn't think of that

it has like 1-2 days of past data, just connect to satepsanone.blahblahblah server i forgot what the GOES-West infrared and visible imagery was called though i'll check later

hint: it probably starts with GW IR is band 4 vis is band 1 or 2

Code: [Select]

WINDSTORM BRIEFING
AT 12Z UTC ON MON 20150901 WINDSTORM ASAALUK WAS LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 134.5W APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST
HOLDING INTENSITY

- KALASSAK

Darvince · « **Reply #23 on:** September 01, 2015, 08:18:08 AM »

yeah you're gonna need to tutorial me on this thing

atomic7732 · « **Reply #24 on:** September 01, 2015, 11:47:56 AM »

Set your server to satepsanone.nesdis.etc & click connect

select GWNHEM04I4 (or 01V for visible, and like 04I3 for water vapor), GWFDSK (full disk), or GE (goes east) MT (MTSAT) etc for different satellites and sectors and wavelengths

Select how many images you want. It will take a while to load more than like one image (when you display them later).

Open this thingy up

Select 'Brightness' or 'Temperature' because those are calibrated data sets. Find the Advanced tab, and click the green expandy symbol to tell it to display a full res image. Then click Create Display.

It will load and then your second window will be like 'hi i have thing'

You can change the projection. I created my own projection, it's pretty simple, and it works well for both the tropics and especially the poles. You can pan (and zoom) with the tools on the right, or scroll with your mouse (to zoom, but you can't click and drag to pan)

and then you can mess with the color tables or make you own. Here's Asaaluk in my extratropical IR color scheme

atomic7732 · « **Reply #25 on:** September 01, 2015, 12:41:03 PM »

Code: [Select]

WINDSTORM WARNINGS FOR THE TEMPERATE & POLAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC
ON MON 20150901 AT 18Z
VALID UNTIL TUE 20150902 AT 18Z

NONE VALID

SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS

EX-WINDSTORM ASAALUK (01)
LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 133.5W
MAX INTENSITY 30KT
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995HPA
MOVING 7KT SE
WEAKENING 10KT PER 12HR
ASAALUK APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED BELOW WINDSTORM INTENSITY AROUND 06Z
SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE BUOY DATA NO LONGER SUPPORT SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ASAALUK
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRACKED UNTIL IT EXITS THE REGION OR WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY

HURRICANE IGNACIO NEAR 28N 154W
EXPECTED TO EXTRATROPICALLY TRANSITION LATE THIS WEEK

- KALASSAK

more data sources

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/os.shtml

atomic7732 · « **Reply #26 on:** September 01, 2015, 02:28:52 PM »

Official press release... nuedar NEPAC windstorm name list

i randomized the names around so that the first lists wouldn't be mostly one group of people's contributions and the last lists wouldn't be mostly yqt's contributions

attributions and meanings (where applicable) to come soon

Thanks especially to Dar, myself, Yqt, and Tuto who contributed a majority of the names on this list (31, 26, 20, and 10, respectively)

Darvince · « **Reply #27 on:** September 01, 2015, 05:30:12 PM »

so does it go asaaluk amanda ayawditee or asaaluk borat carol denali

atomic7732 · « **Reply #28 on:** September 01, 2015, 08:47:46 PM »

alphabetical, finish list 1 before you start list 2, just like the hawaiian and australian and SPAC lists

so asaaluk borat carol denali

atomic7732 · « **Reply #29 on:** September 01, 2015, 08:53:23 PM »

Code: [Select]

WINDSTORM WARNINGS FOR THE TEMPERATE & POLAR NORTHEAST PACIFIC
ON WED 20150902 AT 03Z
VALID UNTIL THU 20150903 AT 00Z

NONE VALID

SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS

EX-WINDSTORM ASAALUK (01)
AT 00Z LOCATED NEAR 53.0N 132.0W
MAX INTENSITY 30KT
CENTRAL PRESSURE 998HPA
MOVING 10KT E
WEAKENING 10KT PER 12HR
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRACKED UNTIL IT EXITS THE REGION OR WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY

HURRICANE IGNACIO NEAR 24N 156W
EXPECTED TO EXTRATROPICALLY TRANSITION LATE THIS WEEK

- KALASSAK