Is anybody else running long system evolution simulations?

[emarksmi]

I've been going through the posts on this board and especially like some of the systems that people have created.  It seems like everybody I see is either interested in building stable systems or interesting collisions.  Although I have been building systems and have played with collisions, I'm having the most fun putting together "what if" situations and letting them run to see how a system evolves.  The two I have the most time on so far are:

Our solar system where I took Jupiter, cut the speed of the starting orbit in half and inclined it by 30 degrees to the ecliptic, and then let it run at 7 d/s.  I have about 9000 years of simulated time on it.

Took our solar system and put an extra captured Jupiter mass rogue planet on a highly elliptical (2.2 - 41 au) highly inclined (135 degrees (or 45 degree retrograde) with the axis tilted at 30 degrees) orbit and then let it run at 7 d/s.  I had a bit over 4100 years of simulated times on it as of this morning.

I find it interesting to see how the systems evolve with time.  The first system obviously evolves MUCH faster because the "real" Jupiter isn't there to stabilize the inner solar system and it is on about a 5 year orbit.  The second is evolving much more slowly (although I can definitely see effects).  I suspect that this is largely due to the long orbit (~100 years) and the fact that the real Jupiter is stabilizing the system.

So, my question is, is anybody else using US this way?  If so, what have you found to be interesting systems to investigate?  If anybody is interested, I'm happy to post either/both of my systems to the board.

[SyzygyΣE]

I'm a person who likes to create systems from scratch, meaning I create them with the knowledge in mind that they will be stable. However, that's not to say I haven't done any kind of system evolution testing. I haven't really performed any long term evolution testing of the kind you describe, but:

• I've launched some stars with masses much heavier than the sun through the inner solar system and noticed how it affected the orbits of of the planets.
• Tested the disintegration of comet-like objects over time with periapsis extremely close to its star.
• Earth's climate feature is always fun to play with and there are a lot of parameters you can tweak to watch how habitability evolves in a different orbit.

Again, long term evolution testing isn't really what I play the game for, but there's no harm in creating such a scenario once in a while.

[emarksmi]

I came home today after letting my Rogue Jupiter system run all day while at work and couldn't find Uranus.  I finally found it on a radically different orbit.  There must have been a close encounter between the Rogue Jupiter and Uranus while I was gone.  If you are interested, I've attached the file I saved this morning (still looks pretty normal except for a pretty heavily disrupted asteroid belt) and the one when I got home.  The other changes to the system are pretty subtle and are mostly related to slowly migrating orbit inclinations and a slow scattering of objects outside the orbit of Neptune.

[Physics_Hacker]

I tend to do this sort of thing except with very young systems--protoplanetary systems, but they take so long to evolve that I don't do this much anymore.

[emarksmi]

I agree.  They take awhile to evolve, especially when the "driver" has a long period orbit.  That is why I tend to set them up and then let them run while I'm away (at work, over night, etc.). 

Still, I think it is interesting to see the effects on the systems and how long they take to develop.

[Physics_Hacker]

I agree.  They take awhile to evolve, especially when the "driver" has a long period orbit.  That is why I tend to set them up and then let them run while I'm away (at work, over night, etc.). 

Still, I think it is interesting to see the effects on the systems and how long they take to develop.

Yeah, even overnight though, I have to set them up to run every night for like a week and a half for a system with a very not-so-generous amount of objects to get down to "planetary stability" status...Doing a more realistic one would take like a month to run and I'm not prepared to do that really...

[emarksmi]

LOL.  I agree that the level of dedication is one that may not stick with me.  Still, I'll post periodic updates of the systems I'm running.  If somebody comes up with an interesting system that they'd like to run for awhile, let me know.  I'm probably willing to devote some computer time to it.

[DenisineD]

I do.

I make all my system with accretion disk. I use US1 to do it....doing one right now....but it take time. Thats how i make the moons of the planets in it

[emarksmi]

Just an update on my Rogue Jupiter simulation.  Just over 9000 simulated years in (about 91 orbits of the Rogue Jupiter size planet) and things are finally starting to evolve more quickly.  In this file:

You can see that some of the inclinations are starting to increase.

The perihelion of the rogue planet is decreasing and is now just over 2 AU (it started closer to 2.6).

The real Jupiter's orbit is definitely being affected and is becoming more eccentric. 

The inclination of Neptune's orbit is really increasing.

Uranus seems to have settled in a fairly stable 15 degree inclined orbit that takes it from about 17 AU all the way out to 60 AU.

The inner solar system is still pretty stable.  Although the inclinations are drifting, the orbits are otherwise stable.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

Another update for my Rogue Jupiter simulation.  It is up to 14514 simulated years (145 +/- 5 orbits of the rogue planet) and seems to be evolving more quickly now.  Interesting things to note since the last update:

1.  The inner solar system is still fairly stable.  The orbits have inclined a bit, but the eccentricities are still very low.  Earth is still habitable.

2.  The asteroid belt is barely recognizable.

3.  The orbit of the Rogue Jupiter Sized Planet has evolved somewhat.  It's inclination is decreasing (started at 135 but has been slowly decreasing) and the orbit is more eccentric (perihelion is now well under 2 AU).

4.  While the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn haven't inclined too much, but are now quite eccentric (about .4) and Jupiter has a perihelion under 4 AU.

5.  Uranus and Neptune appear to be interacting and both are inclined about 15 degrees now.  Uranus continues to get kicked onto longer and longer orbits and now has an aphelion outside the Kuiper Belt included in this simulation.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

Since it looks like some people are reading this and somebody is looking at the simulations, I'll keep doing it.

This update is to our solar system with a rogue Jupiter size planet in an initial 135 degree inclined orbit (or 45 degree retrograde depending on how you want to think about it) with the semi-major axis tilted 30 degrees to the ecliptic.  The initial orbit had a perihelion of about 2.8 AU, and aphelion of about 40 AU (eccentricity of 0.90), and a period of 100 years. 

The simulation is now at 16941 simulated years, 169+/- 5 orbits of the rogue planet.

Note that this is probably the last update where the inner solar system is not disrupted.

Things to note:

1.  The orbit of the Rogue Planet continues to evolve.  The inclination is down to 125 degrees and the eccentricity is up to 0.92.  The perihelion is down to 1.74 AU.  This is setting it up orbits where it could pass as close as 0.3 AU to Mars.  In fact Mars' orbit is already starting to show fairly rapid change with the eccentricity and inclination both increasing noticeably every time I check the program.

2.  Uranus' orbit remains unchanged but I noticed last night that there was the possibility of some fairly close encounters between Neptune and the Rogue.  It appears that they happened in the last 7 orbits because Neptune's orbital inclination has jumped from just under 15 degrees to 19.4 degrees and the eccentricity has jumped to 0.27.  It looks like Neptune is now in an orbit that won't take it more than a couple of AU from the Rogue.

3.  The orbits of Saturn and Jupiter continue so slowly grow more eccentric and inclined.  Jupiter is the interesting one, especially looking at the effects on what is left of the asteroid belt.  Jupiter's perihelion is down to 2.82 AU and the eccentricity is up to 0.45.  This is really squeezing the remaining asteroids between it and Mars/Earth.  Most of the asteroids now have perihelion distances inside the orbit of Mars and some approach Earth.

4.  The inner solar system seems to be evolving more quickly.  I think this is to be expected as Jupiter starts to influence it more and more as its eccentricity increases and the Rogue gets closer.  I expect that Jupiter, since it passes close by 10 times more often than the Rogue, will have a greater long term effect but the Rogue with it's highly inclined orbit will definitely make major changes during close approaches.

5.  The Earth is still very comfortable, but I can't help but wondering what it would be like to look out and see the huge Rogue planet passing much closer than Jupiter ever did.  It would dominate the night sky for several years as it plunges through the ecliptic.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

An update on the Rogue Jupiter simulation.  I'm not up to 22,070 simulated years and things haven't progressed as expected since the last update (about 6,000 simulated years ago).  The Rogue has now made 220 +5/-10 orbits.  Items of note:

1.  Rogue Jupiter/Mars Interaction:  The expected major interaction never really occurred.  There must have been a close pass that kicked Mars into an inclination of about 10 degrees, but it also kicked Mars far enough away from the Rogue that there haven't been any more major interactions.  The Rogue planet's inclination continues to slowly decrease (down to 117 degrees) and the orbit continues to slowly elongate (eccentricity up to .94 with a perihelion of 1.49 AU and an aphelion of 45.7 AU).

2.  The Uranus and Neptune orbits continue to slowly evolve with Uranus' orbit now passing all the way through the modeled Kuiper Belt.  Uranus' orbit seems to be having a large effect on the Kuiper Belt than the much more massive Rogue Planet with noticeable thinning where Uranus passes through.

3.  The orbits of Jupiter and Saturn continue to slowly become more inclined and eccentric.  Jupiter's eccentricity is now up to .59 and it has a perihelion of 2.12 AU.  I keep thinking that the numerous close passes by the inner solar system planets must be acting to stabilize them.

4.  Mars is set up for interesting interactions with Jupiter (closes approach of about 1 AU), the Rogue planet (closest approach of about 0.36 AU), and the Earth (closest approach of about 0.03 AU at the ascending node).  I keep thinking something has to give here at some point.

5.  Mercury and Venus still have orbits that are recognizable as their original orbits with similar distances and a little more eccentricity.  The inclinations are slowly evolving.

6.  Earth is still quite habitable, if a bit chilly in the winter and warm in the summer.  Inclination is up to 4.47 degrees and the eccentricity is at 0.11.  Perihelion is 0.886 AU and aphelion is 1.11 AU.  It is passing close to the orbits of both Mars and Venus.

7.  Asteroid Belt:  I couldn't find Uranus briefly earlier today so I zoomed WAY out thinking maybe it had been ejected.  It hadn't, but I did find some asteroids that are now WAY outside of the Kuiper Belt.  The asteroids remaining in the inner solar system spend most of their time in the large gap between Mars' and Jupiter's aphelions.  The perihelions are mostly inside of Mars' orbit with a few inside Earth's orbit.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

An update on my Rogue Jupiter simulation.  It has now been running 25,429 simulated years (254 +5/-10 orbits of the Rogue Planet).

It has only been about 3,000 simulated years since the last update, less than 30 orbits of the Rogue Planet, but the inner solar system is evolving quickly.

Items to Note:

1.  The Rogue is now down to about 110 degrees inclination and the perihelion is under 1.5 AU.  Jupiter's Perihelion is under 2 AU.  There appear to be stronger interactions developing between the two of them and both of them are now close enough to the inner solar system that the effects are now being seen in the orbit of Venus (its inclination had changed but only recently has the eccentricity been affected).

2.  The orbits of Ceres and Vesta (especially Vesta) have changed a lot.  It appears that Vesta is in the process of being ejected from the inner solar system.

3.  Mars, Earth, and Venus are now strongly influencing each other.  The Perihelion of Mars' orbit is now inside, although well "above", the Perhelion of Earth's.  At closest approach, still at the ascending node of Mars' orbit, the two are passing less than 0.10 AU from each other (note that this is an estimate since I can't directly measure the distance).  Venus and Earth appear to be passing within about 0.20 AU (near the perihelion of both orbits) of each other as well.  Earth's perihelion is down to 0.821 AU (Mars' is 0.801 and Venus' is 0.655 AU).

4.  Earth is still habitable, but that appears to be changing.  During the northern summer, the arctic ice cap and the Greenland Ice Sheet are gone and the snow in the Himalayas looks like it completely disappears.  The Arctic Ocean does not completely freeze over in the northern winter.  The Antarctic Ice Cap still exists, but it is much smaller than it has been in the southern summer.  The extent of the snow in the winter, which is LONG given the current orbit, does not extend as far south as it did even 1000 simulated years ago.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

Just a quick update on the Rogue Jupiter simulation.  I'm at 26501 years and it looks like it is finally the beginning of the end for Planet Earth.  Although the North Polar Ice Cap has been gone for a long time, the Arctic Ocean does not freeze over in the winter, the Greenland Ice Sheet is gone, and the Antarctic Ice Sheet is half the size (or less) than what it started at, the see levels are dropping.  It is still fairly subtle, but if you look at the Persian Gulf and northern Australia, you can definitely see a decline in see level.  I can only conclude that the oceans are starting to evaporate.

Earth's orbit is currently about 0.78 AU perihelion and 1.21 aphelion.  The 0.78 is not within the habital zone.

Another item of note is that the orbits of Earth and Mars almost intersect at the ascending node of Mars' orbit.  I haven't watched closely enough to see how close the planets actually get, but I figure that they must be in some kind of resonance where then never get very close to each other.

The rest of the solar system is still slowly evolving.  I'm looking forward to what looks to be some possible close encounters between Jupiter and the Rogue planet in another thousand years or so.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

An update on my Rogue Jupiter simulation.  It is currently at 29,621 simulated years which would be 296 +5/10 orbits of the rogue planet.  The last 4,000 of simulated time have surprised me.  Earth is still habitable despite passing well inside the habital zone on every orbit and the drastic changes to the inner solar system that I've been expecting haven't materialized.  Items of note:

1.  The Rogue Planet now has a perihelion of about 1.26 AU.  Jupiter's is at 1.19 setting up possible interactions on every pass of the Rogue.  At this distance, the Rogue is interacting with Mercury on every orbit and with Venus and Earth on most orbits.

2.  Outer Solar System:  I've been watching this more carefully recently.  The inclination of the Rogue is down to 101 degrees and the inclinations of Uranus and Neptune are both around 22 degrees with similar perihelion  distances.  Neptune and the Rogue travel well into the Kuiper belt and Uranus travels through it.  The semi-major axes of all three are slowly aligning which is creating scattering, but more interesting, elongation of the Kuiper belt as a whole.  The effect is obviously very slow, but is quite noticeable by now.

3.  If you zoom WAY out, you can see a few objects that appear to have been ejected from the solar system.  I'm not quite sure where they started so I'm not quite sure what did the ejecting.

4.  Mars now passes closer to the sun than Mercury.  It is no longer having close passes by the Earth, but close passes of Mercury are very possible.

5.  Venus and Earth have orbits that pass about 0.08 AU from each other at Perihelion.  Interesting, Perihelion of most of the inner solar system planets are roughly aligned with the perihelion of the Rogue, but that is where Mercury's aphelion is located.

6.  Vesta is now in a 122 degree inclination.  This happened sometime in the last 1000 years of simulated time.

7.  Earth is reaching the end of habitability.  Really this time.  Perihelion is down to 0.63 AU, inside the original orbit of Venus, and the surface temperature is fluctuating between about 20 and 36 degrees C.  This is 8-12 degrees warmer than I noticed when I thought the end was near 4,000 simulated years ago.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

Quick update on the habitability of Earth.  This morning, about 250 simulated years after the last update, the temperature is varying between 21 and 38 degrees C.  This is an increase of about 1 degree C on the low end and 2 on the high end.

[emarksmi]

Just another quick update (with a file this time).  About 700 simulated years have passed since the last update and Earth's temperature continues to warm quickly.  It is now ranging between 27 and 47 degrees C.

If you are interested, the orbits of Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars are very interesting.  Mars's orbit crosses all three of the other orbits and Mercury, Venus, and Earth have regular VERY close passes.

[emarksmi]

Update on the warming of the Earth in the current orbit.  500 simulated years have passed since the last update and the temperature is up to 36 to 59 degrees C.

[emarksmi]

Wow.  Major updates and two files attached.  The two files are at 33163 simulated years and 33867 simulated years.  There were major changes to the system between these two updates and I may need to go back and re-run from the earlier one to see what happened.

In the first file, things were evolving more or less as they had been.  The Rogue planet and Jupiter were gradually entering more and more elliptical orbits and were both down to between 0.9-1.3 AU at perihelion.  The Earth was warming fairly quickly and was running between 55 and 79 degrees C.  Mars was in an interesting, highly elliptical orbit with a perihelion under 0.05 AU (it was fun to watch it whip around the Sun).  Mercury, Venus, and Earth all had orbits that came very close to each other (near perihelion for Venus and Earth and aphelion for Mercury) and the inner solar system planets were more or less orbiting in plane with each other (within 10 degrees or so).

This morning, things have change dramatically:

1.  The Rogue has been ejected from the solar system.  It is at almost 660 AU and is traveling away from the Sun at over 29 km/s.

2.  The inclination of Mars' orbit has been changed by over 20 degrees and it now has a eccentricity of 0.98 with a perihelion of about 0.044 AU.  The inclinations and eccentricities of Vesta and Ceres have also significantly changed.

3.  Jupiter's inclination has significantly changed and its perihelion distance has decreased by about 0.4 AU.

4.  The orbits of Mercury, Venus, and Earth are similar, just slightly evolved.  Earth's perihelion is down to 0.364 AU and the temperature varies between 65 and 105 degrees C on every orbit.  Surprisingly, the oceans haven't boiled off yet.

Given the changes, I assume that about 500 simulated years ago or so, Jupiter and the Rogue had a close encounter, or perhaps a series of close encounters that altered Jupiter's orbit and ejected the Rogue.  I plan to continue to run this simulation for another 5,000-10,000 years of simulated time to see how things shake out now that the Rogue is gone.  I also plan on running from the last save to see what happened to eject the Rogue.

Enjoy.

[Physics_Hacker]

Given the changes, I assume that about 500 simulated years ago or so, Jupiter and the Rogue had a close encounter, or perhaps a series of close encounters that altered Jupiter's orbit and ejected the Rogue.  I plan to continue to run this simulation for another 5,000-10,000 years of simulated time to see how things shake out now that the Rogue is gone.  I also plan on running from the last save to see what happened to eject the Rogue.

I have a hunch that the reason the rogue was ejected wasn't because of any close encounter (though that may have something to do with it indirectly) but that, because of the accuracy of the simulation, it slipped up when it went around the sun fastest, causing a slight error to give such a high velocity that it became escape velocity. If a close encounter with Jupiter caused it to get close enough to the sun for this to happen, that would explain Jupiter's large orbital change and Mars' orbit change may be a combination of both the rogue's huge change in orbit--and ejection, possibly-- and Jupiter's new orbit.

[emarksmi]

I thought about that and if that is the case, it should show up in the "re-run" that I'm going to start in the next couple of days starting from just before the Rogue escaped.

The only issue with that is that the Rogue is going the wrong direction.  Now I can't really figure out how to get the Rogue going the direction that it ended up going unless there was a series of close interactions between Jupiter, the Rogue, and the Sun.  There was a large energy change in Jupiter's orbit as well, but the direction is still a puzzle.

BTW, as of this morning, the Oceans on the Earth still exist despite the fact that the temperature is getting up over 150 degrees C for a significant part of the orbit and never gets below 80 degrees C.  I would think that the oceans should be gone by now.

[emarksmi]

Here is an update to the Rogue Jupiter simulation at 36,737 simulated years, about 3,000 simulated years after the Rogue was ejected/left the solar system.  The continued evolution of the inner solar system is interesting and complicated.  The orbits of both the Earth and Venus continue to become more elongated and their perihelions are both declining, but Mars' orbit is becoming more circular and its perihelion is now outside of Earth/Venus' again.  Mercury's orbit is now back to almost what it started with and its orbit also crosses both Earth's and Venus'.  Quite Strange.

Also, I think Earth is at a tipping point.  Although it still shows oceans, its temperature is well over 100 degrees C for almost the entire orbit and at closest approach the land is turning brown in the simulation.  No idea what that means.  It doesn't seem to be temperature related because that isn't the point where the temperature maxes out.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

Update to the Rogue Jupiter simulation.  I am up to 42,347 simulated years.  It is about 9,000 simulated years after the Rogue was ejected from the solar system.  Items of note:

1.  The Outer Solar System, which really only consists of Uranus and Neptune at this point, seems relatively static now that the Rogue is gone.  I think I can see a SLOW evolution to the shape and orbit of the Kuiper belt, but is very slow given the length of the orbits.

2.  Saturn and Jupiter seem to have moved farther from each other and Saturn's orbit is slowly getting more circular while Jupiter's remains highly elongated.  It looks like there is a possibility of some periodic interaction between Saturn and Neptune (it looks like they get to within about 1 AU of each other).

3.  The evolution of the original inner Solar System planets is interesting.  While the Rogue was still in the system, they were more or less orbiting in plane.  Mars occasionally got kicked out of plan by 10-20 degrees, but slowly moved back into the same plane.  Now the orbits are all in very different planes and very different shapes.  Mercury and Venus are more circular, Mars has moved out, and Earth has moved in.  This isn't very stable and changes relatively quickly.  It is kind of fun to watch it evolve.

4.  Zooming WAY out can be instructive as to the scale of the universe.  The Rogue was kicked out of the system about 9,000 simulated years ago and is traveling at 29 km/s but still hasn't traveled a light year.  There is one body that was ejected about 30,000 simulated years ago and is traveling at over 100 km/s but is still only about 6 light years away.

I'm still planning on running this for a little longer before returning to the point that the Rogue was ejected and exploring what happened.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

Just letting you know that I haven't gone away and I'm still working on my projects/investigations.  We are, however, doing some kitchen remodeling work which means leaving the computer shut down most of the day so progress has been very slow.

I hope to have a real update sometime this weekend.

[emarksmi]

Sorry, I've had a lot going on with work for the last few months.  I'm back to running this simulation and should have another update in a few days.

[emarksmi]

Finally, an update.

The Rogue Jupiter simulation is now at 50,639 simulated years, about 17,000 years after the ejection of the rogue planet and about 8,000 years since the last update.  The inner solar system is a mess with planets in dramatically different inclinations and some in orbits that cross, at least in absolute terms.  Surprisingly, this mess seems to be stable even with Jupiter running through the inner solar system every dozen years or so.   It looks like there may be possible interactions between Jupiter and Mars and between Saturn and Neptune, but with the different inclinations, the time time that they have to interact is short and the distances increase rapidly.

I think I'm going to stick with this for another 5-10k years and if it is still stable, I'm going to return to the point where the Rogue Jupiter was ejected and see if I can see what happened.  If you are looking, the Rogue Jupiter is screaming away from the solar system and is well over a light year distant at this point.

Enjoy.

[emarksmi]

An update, actually two, on the Rogue Jupiter simulation.

The two files posted are at 54821 and 56178 simulated years, or somewhat 20,000 years after the rogue planet was ejected and 4,000-5500 years after the last update.  As you may recall, in my last update, I thought that the system was becoming stable, but it appears that I was wrong.

In the 4,000 simulated years, roughly 380 orbits of Jupiter, between the last update and the earlier file loaded, the outer solar system has stayed more or less stable,  The Kuiper Belt continues to very slowly evolve due to the disruptive effects of both Uranus and Neptune, but that is VERY slow.  The big effects are in the inner solar system.  The Earth and Mercury, still in the strange nearly perpendicular but apparently stable orbits, are more or less unchanged.  Jupiter, however, has moved much closer to the sun and Perihelion and has forced both Venus and Mars into much more elliptical orbits.  There is also what appears to be a possibility of a close interaction between Jupiter and Venus.  It doesn't look like Venus and Mars can interact too closely give that their orbits are also very inclined to each other.

The next update, only about 1350 simulated years later, shows rapid evolution of the inner solar system.  Jupiter's perihelion is still slowly migrating closer to the sun and Venus now has a very elongated orbit that is passing inside the orbit of the Earth (previously the closest planet to the Sun).  In addition, it appears that the evolved orbit of Jupiter is set up so that it will regularly interact with Mercury. 

I was planning on stopping this simulation in about another 4,000 simulated years, and still might, but I'll probably keep running it until this set of interactions has worked itself out.

[dlaurence75254]

I just got the game, haven't had time to run very long simulations.

But I did find some rather interesting results simply by increasing gravity in our solar system by 5.
Elliptical orbits that stay stable for a while, then somebody gets ejected (Earth, Venus, ect). In one of them
Jupiter passes through Earth's orbit.

and that's only messing with the gravity... haven't tried adding objects yet... sounds like fun.

[dlaurence75254]

On the topic of adding objects and running long simulations:

Scenario 1) 10x mass Earth ("superEarth") in the Kuiper belt

Scenario 2) 10x mass Jupiter in Kuiper belt

(I was hoping to see the "sweeping effect" with these)

Scenario 3) Proxima Centauri in the Kuiper belt (it starts to evolve a mini-solarsystem!)

This simulator is sooo cool!

[electricpants]

I don't do long-terms much, but I'm working on a simulation where a star system passes very close to the sun, so I guess I'll give updates on how that goes. (Runs at ~1 d/s)