Author Topic: USF Activity Science (Read 42569 times)

Darvince · « **on:** September 16, 2015, 07:39:13 PM »

Link to charts
Link to raw stats

hello yes I am an official activityologist of the Universe Sandbox Forum. This board seems to be increasing in activity, along with much larger waves of new members joining the forums and leaving their typical 1 to 3 posts in the Alpha board or other similar boards. Each month since May has been increasing in activity, and we may reach a temporary height in activity around late October into early November. This will have lasting impacts on the forum activity well into next year, possibly giving 2016 the second place in terms of the number of posts it has had in the year.

Predictions for fall 2015
September total: 2200 - 2800 posts | Actual: 2698
October total: 2700 - 3700 posts
November total: 2500 - 3500 posts
December total: 3000 - 4500 posts

Gordon Freeman · « **Reply #1 on:** September 17, 2015, 09:58:49 AM »

We need to make a petition to rename the science of statistics to "activityology"

Darvince · « **Reply #2 on:** September 17, 2015, 12:55:11 PM »

statisticians -> activityologists

Darvince · « **Reply #3 on:** September 20, 2015, 07:04:22 PM »

September is about to surpass August in number of posts for the fourth month in a row where postcount has increased.

Revised September prediction: 2100 - 2400 posts

Darvince · « **Reply #4 on:** September 20, 2015, 07:18:36 PM »

Trend of activity over the last six months:

There have been 20 all-time high posting records for a single day:
2008-05-28: 1 post (forum founded)
2008-05-31: 3 posts
2008-07-03: 5 posts
2008-07-06: 7 posts
2008-07-08: 12 posts
2008-07-09: 28 posts
2009-01-04: 34 posts
2009-02-18: 40 posts
2009-02-19: 52 posts
2009-02-20: 88 posts
2009-07-24: 213 posts
2009-08-29: 226 posts
2010-05-09: 316 posts (US2 release)
2010-12-27: 365 posts
2010-12-31: 379 posts
2012-01-24: 454 posts (count to a million becomes active)
2012-01-26: 491 posts
2012-05-11: 527 posts
2012-10-21: 618 posts
2012-11-11: 778 posts The record as it currently stands.

Per year record:
2008: 28 posts
2009: 226 posts
2010: 379 posts
2011: 286 posts
2012: 778 posts
2013: 275 posts
2014: 615 posts
2015: 380 posts (as of this post)

All 2012 and forward statistics include Count to a million.

Darvince · « **Reply #5 on:** September 24, 2015, 02:44:59 PM »

Revised revised September prediction: 2400 - 2600 posts
October prediction: 3500 - 4500 posts

DiamondMiner10 · « **Reply #6 on:** September 30, 2015, 09:01:04 PM »

How do you get this data

vh · « **Reply #7 on:** September 30, 2015, 09:01:25 PM »

Darvince · « **Reply #8 on:** September 30, 2015, 09:25:22 PM »

>mrw people aren't experts at the forum layout on day 1

http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats
scroll down, expand each month. other than that I export the data to a google spreadsheet and then play with it there

DiamondMiner10 · « **Reply #9 on:** September 30, 2015, 09:41:58 PM »

Quote from: Darvince on September 30, 2015, 09:25:22 PM

>mrw people aren't experts at the forum layout on day 1

http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats
scroll down, expand each month. other than that I export the data to a google spreadsheet and then play with it there

oh i see

Darvince · « **Reply #10 on:** October 02, 2015, 08:51:15 PM »

Final totals for September 2015:
With CTAM: 2698 posts
Without: 1894 posts

This week's October prediction: 3400 - 4300 posts (with CTAM)

Darvince · « **Reply #11 on:** October 07, 2015, 09:10:08 PM »

Current activity trend is around 80 posts per day and falling.
In May, the activity trend was at the lowest it had ever been since August of 2010, when it reached a low of 14.19 posts. August 2010 had a low of 12.29 posts.

New October prediction (based on much lower activity than expected): 2700 - 3700 posts

Darvince · « **Reply #12 on:** October 07, 2015, 09:56:33 PM »

Tomorrow I may add pageviews to USFstat if I have the time.

Linkie

Darvince · « **Reply #13 on:** October 09, 2015, 04:41:36 PM »

I added two new charts based on page views.

Page views per post

Page view trend

DiamondMiner10 · « **Reply #14 on:** October 09, 2015, 09:30:33 PM »

I wonder what that spike was

count to a million maybe?

Darvince · « **Reply #15 on:** October 09, 2015, 10:41:04 PM »

it wasn't because all graphs I have shown exclude count to a million because of ctamming days when it gains hundreds of posts

FiahOwl · « **Reply #16 on:** October 13, 2015, 09:21:41 AM »

This message is only viewable with Universe Sandbox Galaxy Edition. Access it and much more with promo-code '158617'.

Darvince · « **Reply #17 on:** October 13, 2015, 12:25:57 PM »

now find the median

New October prediction:
1300-1800 posts

vh · « **Reply #18 on:** October 14, 2015, 12:32:31 PM »

Quote from: Darvince on October 09, 2015, 10:41:04 PM

it wasn't because all graphs I have shown exclude count to a million because of ctamming days when it gains hundreds of posts

laaaaame

Darvince · « **Reply #19 on:** October 14, 2015, 01:28:19 PM »

join irc

Darvince · « **Reply #20 on:** October 17, 2015, 11:32:11 PM »

I haven't updated the spreadsheet in a while so I haven't found anything new interesting. All I have for you is the mid-month prediction:

October: 1350 - 1650 posts
November: 1100 - 1700 posts

Darvince · « **Reply #21 on:** October 30, 2015, 11:37:16 PM »

around 2000 posts this month, ahead of predictions (albeit 650 of them are from ctam)

Darvince · « **Reply #22 on:** November 01, 2015, 08:16:57 PM »

November prediction:
800 - 1000 posts (without CTAM)
1300 - 1800 posts (with CTAM)

vh · « **Reply #23 on:** November 01, 2015, 08:22:02 PM »

AYYYYY and this is why you don't extrapolate trends with quadratics

vh · « **Reply #24 on:** November 01, 2015, 08:24:14 PM »

this is probably the most interesting chart out of all your charts

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=805393687

i'm just a bit confused about how you plotted this -- does the average posts per topic at this current time include all topics and posts ever or just recent topics and posts -- the latter would be much more interesting but also a lot more work to get right

Darvince · « **Reply #25 on:** November 01, 2015, 08:26:20 PM »

not this one?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=2

vh · « **Reply #26 on:** November 01, 2015, 08:27:28 PM »

not exactly sure what that plots

also i just realized ctam contributes like almost 2 to the average posts per topic plot

Darvince · « **Reply #27 on:** November 01, 2015, 08:51:47 PM »

the red line is moving average posts per topic with CTAM
the orange is without
the blue line is total average posts per topic for all time

Darvince · « **Reply #28 on:** November 19, 2015, 11:31:14 PM »

A burst in activity occurred today. We reached over 100 posts in a single day (including CTAM) for the first time since 2015-10-23, narrowly avoiding a month with an absence of 100+ post days.

Here's how my forecast has held up so far (not counting today's activity burst):

vh · « **Reply #29 on:** November 20, 2015, 12:43:26 AM »

i liek how shitty the autoforcefast is