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Author Topic: will the Apophis hit us?  (Read 3746 times)

SuperNova

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will the Apophis hit us?
« on: January 17, 2010, 09:02:44 AM »
title says all

deoxy99

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Re: will the Apophis hit us?
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2010, 10:06:10 AM »
2036.

atomic7732

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Re: will the Apophis hit us?
« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2010, 11:42:15 AM »
Basic probabilities

2029 - nope
2036 - low <highest chance still about 1 in 100,000

Note: Not even a 1 on Troino scale

deoxy99

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Re: will the Apophis hit us?
« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2010, 12:21:03 PM »
Yeah whatever.

atomic7732

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Re: will the Apophis hit us?
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2010, 12:59:08 PM »
Oh so you want it to hit us. I see. Just see for yourself.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

2036 - 1 in 233,000
2056 - 1 in 10,000,000
2068 - 1 in 400,000 or 9,091,000
2076 - 1 in 4,545,000
2103 - 1 in 7,692,000

Interesting that they are all April 13ths...
2036 - Fri
2056 - Thu
2068 - Fri
2076 - Mon
2103 - Fri

Oh, the years also end in 8's or 6's except for 2103.

« Last Edit: January 17, 2010, 01:06:35 PM by NeutronStar »

deoxy99

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Re: will the Apophis hit us?
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2010, 06:17:44 PM »
Oh so you want it to hit us. I see. Just see for yourself.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

2036 - 1 in 233,000
2056 - 1 in 10,000,000
2068 - 1 in 400,000 or 9,091,000
2076 - 1 in 4,545,000
2103 - 1 in 7,692,000

Interesting that they are all April 13ths...
2036 - Fri
2056 - Thu
2068 - Fri
2076 - Mon
2103 - Fri

Oh, the years also end in 8's or 6's except for 2103.



No, I do NOT want it to hit us. It will kill everyone!

atomic7732

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Re: will the Apophis hit us?
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2010, 07:38:39 PM »
But you are saying it will and that I am wrong.

Dan Dixon

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Re: will the Apophis hit us?
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2010, 08:13:13 PM »
will the Apophis hit us?

In short, no.

Even it was on its way toward us, there would be plenty of time to develop a mission to redirect its path.

@NeutronStar
Thanks for the specific probabilities and the link.