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General Category => Astronomy & Science => Topic started by: Darvince on July 23, 2011, 12:21:29 AM

Title: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on July 23, 2011, 12:21:29 AM
I predict that the dew point tomorrow in Southern AZ will be between 50°F and 65°F, which can cause monsoon weather.
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on July 23, 2011, 12:38:34 AM
I predict that the sun will explode tomorrow.

MARICOPA REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

VALID FOR SAT 20110723 0044 - 2359
DATED 20110723 0044

Weather for the day includes the high being around 110°F, mostly clear skies and scattered thunderstorms, there is a chance of raining Darvinces. And the dew point will be between 40°F and 50°F in most places.
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Naru523 on July 23, 2011, 12:41:22 AM
I predict a high 80°F, with mostly cloudy weather with raining dogs and food.
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on July 30, 2011, 12:23:50 AM
Possibly thunderstorms, with a high of around 105°F at 7pm, and a low near 85°F around 3am.
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on July 30, 2011, 12:42:36 AM
Sometime in the next 10 years, it will rain in Ukiah, California.
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on July 30, 2011, 11:06:03 AM
wut
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on April 25, 2015, 03:13:28 PM
what is this topic

anyway i feel like keeping track of things so here

Atomic Weather Service reports
[22:08]   Kalassak   0.08 in
[22:08]   Kalassak   for the apr 24th storm
[22:09]   Kalassak   and also forecasts
[22:09]   Kalassak   .1 to .15 in of rain tonight

maybe i should just put this on my site somehow
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: tuto99 on April 26, 2015, 02:22:01 PM
wow kalassak you used Fahrenheit before
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on April 26, 2015, 02:26:10 PM
who uses celsius
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on April 26, 2015, 04:31:40 PM
nobody
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on April 26, 2015, 05:58:53 PM
we got .30 in of rain btw here

and i think .1 in more today
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: tuto99 on April 26, 2015, 08:13:20 PM
enough to keep Bear Grylls alive
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on April 27, 2015, 12:13:50 AM
kol kaktus

i predict the next rain will happen on May 2 to 5 (25% chance)
or June 28 to July 5 (75% chance)
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on April 27, 2015, 06:57:11 AM
wow early
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on April 27, 2015, 08:00:03 AM
kol also

today will probably be the last day below 90 degrees F until fall (50% chance)
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on April 27, 2015, 08:54:11 AM
i find that really hard to believe actually
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on April 27, 2015, 09:48:59 AM
why
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on April 27, 2015, 11:00:12 AM
nvm i thiught you said 100 for some reason
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: TheBoeingCompany812 on April 29, 2015, 12:34:15 PM
May 1st and 2nd. Slight to enhanced chances, moderate and high risks are possible for central plains and surrounding states.
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Bla on April 29, 2015, 12:56:13 PM
On May 1st, I forecast the sky will be covered in red banners.
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on April 29, 2015, 01:00:16 PM
also exceed 104F on may 20 i guess
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: tuto99 on April 29, 2015, 03:47:32 PM
On May 1st, I forecast the sky will be covered in red banners.
boners*
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on May 04, 2015, 01:00:10 AM
it's either gonna rain like 1.5 inches today or nothing
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on May 04, 2015, 07:05:37 AM
recorded 0.24 in of rain in the past 24 hrs
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on May 04, 2015, 08:57:02 AM
At your hose!!!!!!!
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on May 04, 2015, 10:10:25 AM
yes
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on May 05, 2015, 04:20:27 PM
Next rains:

May 9 to 12 (10% chance)
May 14 to 16 (20% chance)
June 28 to July 5 (70% chance)
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: TheBoeingCompany812 on May 05, 2015, 04:39:19 PM
TORNADOES!!!!
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on May 05, 2015, 04:52:23 PM
kol also

today will probably be the last day below 90 degrees F until fall (50% chance)
this is going to get shattered pretty soon
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: tuto99 on May 05, 2015, 05:30:29 PM
I predict clouds
somewhere on earth
tomorrow
its going to happen
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on May 05, 2015, 05:42:43 PM
pfft tuto take some risks like

i predict clouds... today
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on May 05, 2015, 05:59:05 PM
kol also

today will probably be the last day below 90 degrees F until fall (50% chance)
this is going to get shattered pretty soon
this got shattered yesterday

Luke AFB high yesterday: 82F
PHX high yesterday: 84F
Deer Valley high yesterday: 83F



Also shitty darcast for the next 10 days:

05/0605/0705/0805/0905/1005/1105/1205/1305/1405/15
High/Low86/6583/6077/5381/5586/6091/6393/6795/6990/6685/65
% clouds, level25%, high0%, high10%, high50%, high50%, high50%, mid10%, low10%, low50%, high75%, mid
P chance0%0%0%0%0%5%0%0%5%5%
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on May 05, 2015, 06:06:15 PM
well it could be under 80 on friday
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on May 05, 2015, 09:31:45 PM
revision for later days

05/0605/0705/0805/0905/1005/1105/1205/1305/1405/15
High/Low86/6583/6077/5381/5586/6091/6393/6794/6989/6784/68
% clouds, level25%, high0%, high10%, high50%, high50%, high50%, mid10%, low25%, high75%, mid90%, low
P chance0%0%0%0%0%5%0%0%5%25%
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on May 08, 2015, 11:45:34 AM
nuecast for rains

0508 40% (T-0.05 in)
0509 10% (0-T)
0510 05% (0-T)
0511 00%
0512 10% (0-T)
0513 00%
0514 00%
----------
0515 00%
0516 00%
0517 10%

Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on May 23, 2015, 10:55:25 AM
Darcast for 05-24 till 06-02

05/2405/2505/2605/2705/2805/2905/3005/3106/0106/02
High/Low83/6386/6490/6793/7092/7094/7198/73100/74103/76104/82
Dew Point40/3040/3030/2030/1030/1035/2035/2540/3060/3560/40
% clouds, level25%, high50%, mix0%, high0%, high0%, high0%, high10%, low10%, low25%, low50%, low
P chance0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%5%15%
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on May 28, 2015, 01:25:02 PM
Darcast for 05-29 till 06-07

05/2905/3005/3106/0106/0206/0306/0406/0506/0606/07
High/Low94/7198/74103/77104/79102/78100/7599/7398/7396/7299/74
Dew Point35/2040/3045/3045/3045/3040/3035/2035/1040/1545/25
% clouds, level10%, high0%, high25%, mix25%, low50%, low0%, high10%, low10%, low25%, low0%, high
P chance0%0%0%0%5%5%0%0%0%0%
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on June 01, 2015, 06:18:21 PM
precip nuecast

0602 00%
0603 00%
0604 00%
0605 10% (T - 0.05 in)
0606 00%
0607 10% (T - 0.05 in)
0608 20% (T - 0.05 in)
---
0609 05% (0 - T)
0610 00%
0611 00%
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on June 01, 2015, 11:52:08 PM
Darcast for 06-02 till 06-12

06/0206/0306/0406/0506/0606/0706/0806/0906/1006/11
High/Low102/74101/7499/7296/7493/7895/7699/78102/81103/83105/76
Dew Point30/1035/1540/1550/3055/4045/3060/3560/4055/3545/25
% clouds, level10%, high10%, high50%, low70%, low70%, low50%, mix70%, mix25%, mix70%, low25%, low
P chance0%0%0%5%25%10%10%30%5%0%
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on October 11, 2015, 03:47:18 PM
We are weigh above normal
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on October 11, 2015, 04:06:25 PM
Darcast for 10-12 till 10-21

10/1210/1310/1410/1510/1610/1710/1810/1910/2010/21
High/Low98/7499/76100/7697/7588/7082/6384/6887/7090/6792/67
Dew Point55/4555/4555/4555/4560/5065/5565/5060/5060/4560/30
% clouds, level10%, high10%, high50%, high50%, mix50%, low90%, low75%, low50%, low25%, low25%, low
P chance0%0%0%5%20%50%15%15%15%0%
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on October 12, 2015, 12:17:44 AM
prepare your anus california

(https://i.gyazo.com/844d7f2feea825435c9acb402e632c5e.png)

this is coming
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on January 02, 2016, 12:23:56 AM
why the heck does the CFS start the north american monsoon almost a month early

(http://i.imgur.com/lkgEoF5.gif) june 3

(http://i.imgur.com/OVI6Pd8.gif) june 14

it's done this for several runs
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on June 26, 2016, 02:28:23 AM
it turns out that the monsoon visited for 3 days in early june and now it's coming for real before june is over :)
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on June 26, 2016, 03:24:55 PM
dar we should play be better than IMD

(http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/IO/93A.INVEST/gmi/89h/1degreeticks/20160626.1526.gpm.x.89h_1deg.93AINVEST.15kts-1008mb-224N-667E.53pc.jpg)

(http://i.imgur.com/BwVAC6E.png)

this is a tropical depression
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on June 29, 2016, 02:56:29 PM
(http://i.imgur.com/BgdJj5C.gif)

looks like july is going to be good for atl and epac (and thus for nhem)

but beyond that the outlook is... grim... with a complete reversal of conditions: favorable conditions centered in the indian ocean where nothing happens and average conditions in the wpac, but epac and atl being killed... at least until october

but by then it might be too late
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on June 30, 2016, 10:08:13 PM
some cute cyclones wrf is generating

(http://i.imgur.com/xgmR39T.png)
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on July 31, 2016, 12:20:29 AM
uh
(http://i.imgur.com/cucMMn4.gif)
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on July 31, 2016, 01:13:15 AM
looks like basically nothing to me tbh
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on August 09, 2016, 01:46:06 AM
/me was investigating patterns of tropical cyclone activity and did this quick thing

1982-1985 vs 2012-2015

(http://i.imgur.com/UJdr6TW.gif)

[08:38]   Kalassak   things to note:
[08:38]   Kalassak   epac appears to have moved slightly east
[08:39]   Kalassak   really actually
[08:39]   Kalassak   the tracks contracted
[08:39]   Kalassak   not sure why that would be
[08:39]   Kalassak   wpac has more storms closer to the equator
[08:39]   Kalassak   arabian sea has much stronger storms
[08:39]   Kalassak   swio is much more sprawled about
[08:40]   Kalassak   spac has receded west
[08:40]   Kalassak   atl is more sprawled about and there are more TCs further south

of course, these are just 4 years each, which could easily be influenced by ENSO or other oscillating climate patterns

some of the changes i think that have more merit: arabian sea, spac, and wpac

i'm going to do some more in-depth analyses when i finish putting all the tracks on my website back to 1963, then i'll do a decades version of this
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: Darvince on August 09, 2016, 06:51:54 AM
SPAC is an artifact of the 1982-83 el niño whose effects took a really long time to go away

a better comparison would be 1982-85 with 2015-18 but obviously 2016 is only just now underway and 2017 and 2018 haven't happened yet
Title: Re: Weather stuffs that you think (forecast and other)
Post by: atomic7732 on August 15, 2016, 02:16:18 AM
a project

(https://i.gyazo.com/03524ed77ae9ade909cbb0702d336865.png)

any suggestions dar?

basin codes will be
AL - desginations get special status, match with NHC and update with new storms
EP - designations get special status, see above
CP - should i use it? it would be uniform with NHC and also have special status
WP -
NI - not JTWC standard 'IO', nor any distinguish between 'A' and 'B'
SI - just used for Southwest Indian west of 90E
AU -
SP - just South Pacific east of 160E
SL -

all storms outside of AL, EP, and CP will receive designations unique to my database
they will be unique identifiers and permanent such that added storms get a number following the last storm in the operational season and removed storms will leave a gap between two numbers
AL, EP, and CP storms will have special status such that their identifiers will be updated to match with the official ATCF when new storms are added or they are removed, since the data quality there is high