Universe Sandbox
General Category => Astronomy & Science => Topic started by: Darvince on July 23, 2011, 12:21:29 AM
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I predict that the dew point tomorrow in Southern AZ will be between 50°F and 65°F, which can cause monsoon weather.
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I predict that the sun will explode tomorrow.
MARICOPA REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
VALID FOR SAT 20110723 0044 - 2359
DATED 20110723 0044
Weather for the day includes the high being around 110°F, mostly clear skies and scattered thunderstorms, there is a chance of raining Darvinces. And the dew point will be between 40°F and 50°F in most places.
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I predict a high 80°F, with mostly cloudy weather with raining dogs and food.
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Possibly thunderstorms, with a high of around 105°F at 7pm, and a low near 85°F around 3am.
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Sometime in the next 10 years, it will rain in Ukiah, California.
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wut
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what is this topic
anyway i feel like keeping track of things so here
Atomic Weather Service reports
[22:08] Kalassak 0.08 in
[22:08] Kalassak for the apr 24th storm
[22:09] Kalassak and also forecasts
[22:09] Kalassak .1 to .15 in of rain tonight
maybe i should just put this on my site somehow
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wow kalassak you used Fahrenheit before
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who uses celsius
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nobody
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we got .30 in of rain btw here
and i think .1 in more today
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enough to keep Bear Grylls alive
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kol kaktus
i predict the next rain will happen on May 2 to 5 (25% chance)
or June 28 to July 5 (75% chance)
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wow early
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kol also
today will probably be the last day below 90 degrees F until fall (50% chance)
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i find that really hard to believe actually
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why
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nvm i thiught you said 100 for some reason
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May 1st and 2nd. Slight to enhanced chances, moderate and high risks are possible for central plains and surrounding states.
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On May 1st, I forecast the sky will be covered in red banners.
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also exceed 104F on may 20 i guess
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On May 1st, I forecast the sky will be covered in red banners.
boners*
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it's either gonna rain like 1.5 inches today or nothing
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recorded 0.24 in of rain in the past 24 hrs
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At your hose!!!!!!!
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yes
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Next rains:
May 9 to 12 (10% chance)
May 14 to 16 (20% chance)
June 28 to July 5 (70% chance)
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TORNADOES!!!!
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kol also
today will probably be the last day below 90 degrees F until fall (50% chance)
this is going to get shattered pretty soon
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I predict clouds
somewhere on earth
tomorrow
its going to happen
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pfft tuto take some risks like
i predict clouds... today
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kol also
today will probably be the last day below 90 degrees F until fall (50% chance)
this is going to get shattered pretty soon
this got shattered yesterday
Luke AFB high yesterday: 82F
PHX high yesterday: 84F
Deer Valley high yesterday: 83F
Also shitty darcast for the next 10 days:
| 05/06 | 05/07 | 05/08 | 05/09 | 05/10 | 05/11 | 05/12 | 05/13 | 05/14 | 05/15 |
High/Low | 86/65 | 83/60 | 77/53 | 81/55 | 86/60 | 91/63 | 93/67 | 95/69 | 90/66 | 85/65 |
% clouds, level | 25%, high | 0%, high | 10%, high | 50%, high | 50%, high | 50%, mid | 10%, low | 10%, low | 50%, high | 75%, mid |
P chance | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% |
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well it could be under 80 on friday
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revision for later days
| 05/06 | 05/07 | 05/08 | 05/09 | 05/10 | 05/11 | 05/12 | 05/13 | 05/14 | 05/15 |
High/Low | 86/65 | 83/60 | 77/53 | 81/55 | 86/60 | 91/63 | 93/67 | 94/69 | 89/67 | 84/68 |
% clouds, level | 25%, high | 0%, high | 10%, high | 50%, high | 50%, high | 50%, mid | 10%, low | 25%, high | 75%, mid | 90%, low |
P chance | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 25% |
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nuecast for rains
0508 40% (T-0.05 in)
0509 10% (0-T)
0510 05% (0-T)
0511 00%
0512 10% (0-T)
0513 00%
0514 00%
----------
0515 00%
0516 00%
0517 10%
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Darcast for 05-24 till 06-02
| 05/24 | 05/25 | 05/26 | 05/27 | 05/28 | 05/29 | 05/30 | 05/31 | 06/01 | 06/02 |
High/Low | 83/63 | 86/64 | 90/67 | 93/70 | 92/70 | 94/71 | 98/73 | 100/74 | 103/76 | 104/82 |
Dew Point | 40/30 | 40/30 | 30/20 | 30/10 | 30/10 | 35/20 | 35/25 | 40/30 | 60/35 | 60/40 |
% clouds, level | 25%, high | 50%, mix | 0%, high | 0%, high | 0%, high | 0%, high | 10%, low | 10%, low | 25%, low | 50%, low |
P chance | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 15% |
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Darcast for 05-29 till 06-07
| 05/29 | 05/30 | 05/31 | 06/01 | 06/02 | 06/03 | 06/04 | 06/05 | 06/06 | 06/07 |
High/Low | 94/71 | 98/74 | 103/77 | 104/79 | 102/78 | 100/75 | 99/73 | 98/73 | 96/72 | 99/74 |
Dew Point | 35/20 | 40/30 | 45/30 | 45/30 | 45/30 | 40/30 | 35/20 | 35/10 | 40/15 | 45/25 |
% clouds, level | 10%, high | 0%, high | 25%, mix | 25%, low | 50%, low | 0%, high | 10%, low | 10%, low | 25%, low | 0%, high |
P chance | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
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precip nuecast
0602 00%
0603 00%
0604 00%
0605 10% (T - 0.05 in)
0606 00%
0607 10% (T - 0.05 in)
0608 20% (T - 0.05 in)
---
0609 05% (0 - T)
0610 00%
0611 00%
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Darcast for 06-02 till 06-12
| 06/02 | 06/03 | 06/04 | 06/05 | 06/06 | 06/07 | 06/08 | 06/09 | 06/10 | 06/11 |
High/Low | 102/74 | 101/74 | 99/72 | 96/74 | 93/78 | 95/76 | 99/78 | 102/81 | 103/83 | 105/76 |
Dew Point | 30/10 | 35/15 | 40/15 | 50/30 | 55/40 | 45/30 | 60/35 | 60/40 | 55/35 | 45/25 |
% clouds, level | 10%, high | 10%, high | 50%, low | 70%, low | 70%, low | 50%, mix | 70%, mix | 25%, mix | 70%, low | 25%, low |
P chance | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 25% | 10% | 10% | 30% | 5% | 0% |
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We are weigh above normal
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Darcast for 10-12 till 10-21
| 10/12 | 10/13 | 10/14 | 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 | 10/19 | 10/20 | 10/21 |
High/Low | 98/74 | 99/76 | 100/76 | 97/75 | 88/70 | 82/63 | 84/68 | 87/70 | 90/67 | 92/67 |
Dew Point | 55/45 | 55/45 | 55/45 | 55/45 | 60/50 | 65/55 | 65/50 | 60/50 | 60/45 | 60/30 |
% clouds, level | 10%, high | 10%, high | 50%, high | 50%, mix | 50%, low | 90%, low | 75%, low | 50%, low | 25%, low | 25%, low |
P chance | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 20% | 50% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 0% |
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prepare your anus california
(https://i.gyazo.com/844d7f2feea825435c9acb402e632c5e.png)
this is coming
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why the heck does the CFS start the north american monsoon almost a month early
(http://i.imgur.com/lkgEoF5.gif) june 3
(http://i.imgur.com/OVI6Pd8.gif) june 14
it's done this for several runs
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it turns out that the monsoon visited for 3 days in early june and now it's coming for real before june is over :)
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dar we should play be better than IMD
(http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/IO/93A.INVEST/gmi/89h/1degreeticks/20160626.1526.gpm.x.89h_1deg.93AINVEST.15kts-1008mb-224N-667E.53pc.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/BwVAC6E.png)
this is a tropical depression
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(http://i.imgur.com/BgdJj5C.gif)
looks like july is going to be good for atl and epac (and thus for nhem)
but beyond that the outlook is... grim... with a complete reversal of conditions: favorable conditions centered in the indian ocean where nothing happens and average conditions in the wpac, but epac and atl being killed... at least until october
but by then it might be too late
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some cute cyclones wrf is generating
(http://i.imgur.com/xgmR39T.png)
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uh
(http://i.imgur.com/cucMMn4.gif)
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looks like basically nothing to me tbh
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/me was investigating patterns of tropical cyclone activity and did this quick thing
1982-1985 vs 2012-2015
(http://i.imgur.com/UJdr6TW.gif)
[08:38] Kalassak things to note:
[08:38] Kalassak epac appears to have moved slightly east
[08:39] Kalassak really actually
[08:39] Kalassak the tracks contracted
[08:39] Kalassak not sure why that would be
[08:39] Kalassak wpac has more storms closer to the equator
[08:39] Kalassak arabian sea has much stronger storms
[08:39] Kalassak swio is much more sprawled about
[08:40] Kalassak spac has receded west
[08:40] Kalassak atl is more sprawled about and there are more TCs further south
of course, these are just 4 years each, which could easily be influenced by ENSO or other oscillating climate patterns
some of the changes i think that have more merit: arabian sea, spac, and wpac
i'm going to do some more in-depth analyses when i finish putting all the tracks on my website back to 1963, then i'll do a decades version of this
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SPAC is an artifact of the 1982-83 el niño whose effects took a really long time to go away
a better comparison would be 1982-85 with 2015-18 but obviously 2016 is only just now underway and 2017 and 2018 haven't happened yet
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a project
(https://i.gyazo.com/03524ed77ae9ade909cbb0702d336865.png)
any suggestions dar?
basin codes will be
AL - desginations get special status, match with NHC and update with new storms
EP - designations get special status, see above
CP - should i use it? it would be uniform with NHC and also have special status
WP -
NI - not JTWC standard 'IO', nor any distinguish between 'A' and 'B'
SI - just used for Southwest Indian west of 90E
AU -
SP - just South Pacific east of 160E
SL -
all storms outside of AL, EP, and CP will receive designations unique to my database
they will be unique identifiers and permanent such that added storms get a number following the last storm in the operational season and removed storms will leave a gap between two numbers
AL, EP, and CP storms will have special status such that their identifiers will be updated to match with the official ATCF when new storms are added or they are removed, since the data quality there is high