Universe Sandbox

General Category => Everything Else => Topic started by: Darvince on September 16, 2015, 07:39:13 PM

Title: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on September 16, 2015, 07:39:13 PM
Link to charts (http://tinyurl.com/usfstat)
Link to raw stats (http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats)

hello yes I am an official activityologist of the Universe Sandbox Forum. This board seems to be increasing in activity, along with much larger waves of new members joining the forums and leaving their typical 1 to 3 posts in the Alpha board or other similar boards. Each month since May has been increasing in activity, and we may reach a temporary height in activity around late October into early November. This will have lasting impacts on the forum activity well into next year, possibly giving 2016 the second place in terms of the number of posts it has had in the year.

Predictions for fall 2015
September total: 2200 - 2800 posts | Actual: 2698
October total: 2700 - 3700 posts
November total: 2500 - 3500 posts
December total: 3000 - 4500 posts
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Gordon Freeman on September 17, 2015, 09:58:49 AM
We need to make a petition to rename the science of statistics to "activityology"
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on September 17, 2015, 12:55:11 PM
statisticians -> activityologists
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on September 20, 2015, 07:04:22 PM
September is about to surpass August in number of posts for the fourth month in a row where postcount has increased.

Revised September prediction: 2100 - 2400 posts
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on September 20, 2015, 07:18:36 PM
Trend of activity over the last six months:
(http://i.imgur.com/ycrS4zP.png)

There have been 20 all-time high posting records for a single day:
2008-05-28: 1 post (forum founded)
2008-05-31: 3 posts
2008-07-03: 5 posts
2008-07-06: 7 posts
2008-07-08: 12 posts
2008-07-09: 28 posts
2009-01-04: 34 posts
2009-02-18: 40 posts
2009-02-19: 52 posts
2009-02-20: 88 posts
2009-07-24: 213 posts
2009-08-29: 226 posts
2010-05-09: 316 posts (US2 release)
2010-12-27: 365 posts
2010-12-31: 379 posts
2012-01-24: 454 posts (count to a million becomes active)
2012-01-26: 491 posts
2012-05-11: 527 posts
2012-10-21: 618 posts
2012-11-11: 778 posts The record as it currently stands.

Per year record:
2008: 28 posts
2009: 226 posts
2010: 379 posts
2011: 286 posts
2012: 778 posts
2013: 275 posts
2014: 615 posts
2015: 380 posts (as of this post)

All 2012 and forward statistics include Count to a million.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on September 24, 2015, 02:44:59 PM
Revised revised September prediction: 2400 - 2600 posts
October prediction: 3500 - 4500 posts
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: DiamondMiner10 on September 30, 2015, 09:01:04 PM
How do you get this data
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on September 30, 2015, 09:01:25 PM
kk
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on September 30, 2015, 09:25:22 PM
>mrw people aren't experts at the forum layout on day 1

http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats
scroll down, expand each month. other than that I export the data to a google spreadsheet and then play with it there
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: DiamondMiner10 on September 30, 2015, 09:41:58 PM
>mrw people aren't experts at the forum layout on day 1

http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats
scroll down, expand each month. other than that I export the data to a google spreadsheet and then play with it there
oh i see
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 02, 2015, 08:51:15 PM
Final totals for September 2015:
With CTAM: 2698 posts
Without: 1894 posts

This week's October prediction: 3400 - 4300 posts (with CTAM)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 07, 2015, 09:10:08 PM
Current activity trend is around 80 posts per day and falling.
In May, the activity trend was at the lowest it had ever been since August of 2010, when it reached a low of 14.19 posts. August 2010 had a low of 12.29 posts.

New October prediction (based on much lower activity than expected): 2700 - 3700 posts
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 07, 2015, 09:56:33 PM
Tomorrow I may add pageviews to USFstat if I have the time.

Linkie (http://tinyurl.com/usfstat)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 09, 2015, 04:41:36 PM
I added two new charts based on page views.

Page views per post
(https://i.gyazo.com/eeef06b4dd1dab5c5f90a1e556fc37a7.png)

Page view trend
(https://i.gyazo.com/41f131f17ab08ed80b384b96feac84ad.png)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: DiamondMiner10 on October 09, 2015, 09:30:33 PM
I wonder what that spike was


count to a million maybe?
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 09, 2015, 10:41:04 PM
it wasn't because all graphs I have shown exclude count to a million because of ctamming days when it gains hundreds of posts
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: FiahOwl on October 13, 2015, 09:21:41 AM
The average member
has made 39 posts, only 11 under their avatar because 28 of them are in EE
has made 2 topics
is male
does not browse the forum every day


Hi I am dr. owl with a degree from university of Aeridani in memberology
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 13, 2015, 12:25:57 PM
now find the median

New October prediction:
1300-1800 posts
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on October 14, 2015, 12:32:31 PM
it wasn't because all graphs I have shown exclude count to a million because of ctamming days when it gains hundreds of posts

laaaaame
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 14, 2015, 01:28:19 PM
join irc
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 17, 2015, 11:32:11 PM
I haven't updated the spreadsheet in a while so I haven't found anything new interesting. All I have for you is the mid-month prediction:

October: 1350 - 1650 posts
November: 1100 - 1700 posts
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 30, 2015, 11:37:16 PM
around 2000 posts this month, ahead of predictions (albeit 650 of them are from ctam)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on November 01, 2015, 08:16:57 PM
(https://i.gyazo.com/5a0df85ea4aead5897473b7a83574970.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/5a0df85ea4aead5897473b7a83574970.png)

November prediction:
800 - 1000 posts (without CTAM)
1300 - 1800 posts (with CTAM)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on November 01, 2015, 08:22:02 PM
AYYYYY and this is why you don't extrapolate trends with quadratics
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on November 01, 2015, 08:24:14 PM
this is probably the most interesting chart out of all your charts

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=805393687

i'm just a bit confused about how you plotted this -- does the average posts per topic at this current time include all topics and posts ever or just recent topics and posts -- the latter would be much more interesting but also a lot more work to get right
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on November 01, 2015, 08:26:20 PM
not this one?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=2
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on November 01, 2015, 08:27:28 PM
not exactly sure what that plots


also i just realized ctam contributes like almost 2 to the average posts per topic plot
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on November 01, 2015, 08:51:47 PM
the red line is moving average posts per topic with CTAM
the orange is without
the blue line is total average posts per topic for all time
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on November 19, 2015, 11:31:14 PM
A burst in activity occurred today. We reached over 100 posts in a single day (including CTAM) for the first time since 2015-10-23, narrowly avoiding a month with an absence of 100+ post days.

Here's how my forecast has held up so far (not counting today's activity burst):
(https://i.gyazo.com/6ac3b00fa6772a9a90442951f0affe40.png)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on November 20, 2015, 12:43:26 AM
i liek how shitty the autoforcefast is
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: DiamondMiner10 on November 20, 2015, 08:11:07 AM
we must destroy it
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on November 20, 2015, 09:34:36 AM
schtupid
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on December 04, 2015, 04:50:27 PM
Update with the end of the month:

(https://i.gyazo.com/20e2b7ab5949e165cae4beb4440e84bf.png)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on December 04, 2015, 06:35:04 PM
what is pruprl
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Lord DC on December 04, 2015, 08:25:24 PM
the pre-spambot era
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on December 04, 2015, 09:23:47 PM
purple is the activity which isn't finished because it takes past 10 days and next 10 days
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 11, 2016, 07:18:42 PM
(https://i.gyazo.com/0e51abf060ec924900182bfcdeb6a97c.png)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on January 11, 2016, 07:55:13 PM
 wow this force cast is not failing as badly as i predicted
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on January 11, 2016, 09:14:51 PM
went new forecast dan
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 29, 2016, 09:35:25 AM
it takes nine pages of posts to make it into the first page of everything else while it only takes 24 posts to make it into the first page of astronomy and science
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on January 29, 2016, 10:23:57 AM
you can sort by post count???
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 29, 2016, 11:02:59 AM
click replies twice
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on January 29, 2016, 01:26:41 PM
click replies twice

holyshit
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on February 26, 2016, 01:39:54 AM
Stats fully updated as of 2016-02-25.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on May 03, 2016, 05:53:08 AM
I have discovered that the length of topics on USForum closely follows this power law:

y=16077.3843(x^-1.1131)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on May 03, 2016, 07:49:01 AM
doesn't that look like a square root function
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on May 03, 2016, 08:03:40 AM
uh isn't a root function x^(between 0 and 1)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on May 03, 2016, 10:13:51 AM
good point i was thinking it was negative
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on June 13, 2016, 12:20:42 PM
Stats fully updated as of 2016-06-12.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on June 13, 2016, 01:10:42 PM
can we get another forumcast?
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on November 30, 2016, 07:05:36 PM
Stats fully updated as of 2016-11-28.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on December 21, 2016, 01:02:24 AM
The last day with over 100 posts was July 10th, 2016.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on December 21, 2016, 01:03:28 AM
can we get another forumcast?
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on December 21, 2016, 01:05:26 AM
maybe

the reason I didn't do one then is because it would have involved a sine wave which idk how to do in google docs
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 07, 2017, 11:38:17 PM
Stats fully updated as of 2017-01-06.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on January 07, 2017, 11:44:49 PM
i like how you have an topics with ctam chart which is the same as topics (without ctam) but shifted up by one.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 08, 2017, 12:54:26 AM
A new forecast has been made!

(https://i.gyazo.com/c1d0de61370725c0969dbb400debd6c8.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/c1d0de61370725c0969dbb400debd6c8.png)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on January 08, 2017, 09:12:16 AM
XTRP best model
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 08, 2017, 03:05:35 PM
the prupl is activity that isn't "finished" yet because activity includes both future and past days
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on January 08, 2017, 04:27:32 PM
i mean the blue region
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 08, 2017, 11:35:19 PM
oh kol yes best model

we will shitpost our way to infinity
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 14, 2017, 04:26:42 PM
Update for the forecast to 20170105 (for finished activity levels), and five days of the forecast busting too high!

(https://i.gyazo.com/bb6212301d42b950c2eb4ffe349ad178.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/bb6212301d42b950c2eb4ffe349ad178.png)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on January 15, 2017, 05:38:57 AM
wow those shitposts didn't show up at all
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 15, 2017, 09:14:53 PM
ikr we must schitpost at an astounding rate to achieve our goals
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: FiahOwl on January 26, 2017, 07:39:15 PM
mess let's try 2k before january
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 26, 2017, 07:41:02 PM
idk i gotta update the schit to see how the forcecast has performed
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: FiahOwl on January 26, 2017, 07:42:27 PM
mess we're gonna fail and usf will die
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on January 26, 2017, 07:58:04 PM
new forcecast with the death of usf predicted

(https://i.gyazo.com/2f29f77b7cef5c27a8e22aaec02469e7.png)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on January 26, 2017, 08:35:43 PM
i would guess that coincides with the death of functioning internet structure in the US or maybe the world or maybe just science reality gets banned
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on March 17, 2017, 02:34:29 AM
(https://i.gyazo.com/9ffc6638011808decf8e3678fbb158b6.png)

2017-03-16 wat
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: FiahOwl on March 17, 2017, 07:22:18 AM
wtf
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on July 09, 2017, 05:16:51 AM
Updated.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on March 10, 2018, 02:35:25 AM
i'm not going to do this anymore because the levels of daily spam are ridiculous
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Gurren Lagann TSS on March 10, 2018, 12:32:07 PM
i'm not going to do this anymore because the levels of daily spam are ridiculous

True. LIKE 100 MILLION SPAM EVERYDAY
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on December 29, 2018, 12:46:51 AM
I decided to update it for the first time since July 2017 (!) The solution I used to remove the spam signal was to not count new topics as posts in the curated charts from November 16, 2017 (that day had more topics created than any day since January 2, 2017) until September 4, 2018, when the spambots ended by grace of an admin making new accounts have to be approved to post. Previously the curated charts were just without CTAM, but now exclude the massive spam wave from this year as well.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=1289847942
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on December 29, 2018, 12:50:58 AM
also bong told me to move the data off of google sheets and use r or matplotlib
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on December 29, 2018, 12:53:33 AM
(https://i.gyazo.com/6e61c055d0e039154369812735926022.png)
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on July 05, 2019, 02:00:59 AM
A wave of spambots or just regular bots are visiting the forum every day and this wave has set new record highs for the maximum number of viewers online at the same time twice in the last week - the first time on June 30th and the second time yesterday on July 4th. More details forthcoming.
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: vh on July 05, 2019, 01:07:13 PM
this confirms my intution that 2012 was peak usf
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on July 05, 2019, 01:13:50 PM
what was the previous peak that held for the longest time
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on July 05, 2019, 02:14:05 PM
366 from july 2011

it held until december 2018 when this started happening
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 10, 2019, 08:20:06 PM
Updated the sheet to 2019-10-09
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Darvince on October 28, 2019, 06:42:55 AM
Updated the sheet to 2019-10-27

I don't know if I should keep not counting CTAM in the posts since in the current edition of Active CTAM almost every CTAM post has actual content with it rather than just being the number. Thoughts?
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: Lord DC on October 28, 2019, 06:49:28 AM
dew it
Title: Re: USF Activity Science
Post by: atomic7732 on October 28, 2019, 07:37:14 AM
idk i'd be consistent or it might become a mess real fast