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Link to charts (http://tinyurl.com/usfstat)
Link to raw stats (http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats)
hello yes I am an official activityologist of the Universe Sandbox Forum. This board seems to be increasing in activity, along with much larger waves of new members joining the forums and leaving their typical 1 to 3 posts in the Alpha board or other similar boards. Each month since May has been increasing in activity, and we may reach a temporary height in activity around late October into early November. This will have lasting impacts on the forum activity well into next year, possibly giving 2016 the second place in terms of the number of posts it has had in the year.
Predictions for fall 2015
September total: 2200 - 2800 posts | Actual: 2698
October total: 2700 - 3700 posts
November total: 2500 - 3500 posts
December total: 3000 - 4500 posts
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We need to make a petition to rename the science of statistics to "activityology"
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statisticians -> activityologists
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September is about to surpass August in number of posts for the fourth month in a row where postcount has increased.
Revised September prediction: 2100 - 2400 posts
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Trend of activity over the last six months:
(http://i.imgur.com/ycrS4zP.png)
There have been 20 all-time high posting records for a single day:
2008-05-28: 1 post (forum founded)
2008-05-31: 3 posts
2008-07-03: 5 posts
2008-07-06: 7 posts
2008-07-08: 12 posts
2008-07-09: 28 posts
2009-01-04: 34 posts
2009-02-18: 40 posts
2009-02-19: 52 posts
2009-02-20: 88 posts
2009-07-24: 213 posts
2009-08-29: 226 posts
2010-05-09: 316 posts (US2 release)
2010-12-27: 365 posts
2010-12-31: 379 posts
2012-01-24: 454 posts (count to a million becomes active)
2012-01-26: 491 posts
2012-05-11: 527 posts
2012-10-21: 618 posts
2012-11-11: 778 posts The record as it currently stands.
Per year record:
2008: 28 posts
2009: 226 posts
2010: 379 posts
2011: 286 posts
2012: 778 posts
2013: 275 posts
2014: 615 posts
2015: 380 posts (as of this post)
All 2012 and forward statistics include Count to a million.
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Revised revised September prediction: 2400 - 2600 posts
October prediction: 3500 - 4500 posts
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How do you get this data
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kk
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>mrw people aren't experts at the forum layout on day 1
http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats
scroll down, expand each month. other than that I export the data to a google spreadsheet and then play with it there
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>mrw people aren't experts at the forum layout on day 1
http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats
scroll down, expand each month. other than that I export the data to a google spreadsheet and then play with it there
oh i see
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Final totals for September 2015:
With CTAM: 2698 posts
Without: 1894 posts
This week's October prediction: 3400 - 4300 posts (with CTAM)
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Current activity trend is around 80 posts per day and falling.
In May, the activity trend was at the lowest it had ever been since August of 2010, when it reached a low of 14.19 posts. August 2010 had a low of 12.29 posts.
New October prediction (based on much lower activity than expected): 2700 - 3700 posts
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Tomorrow I may add pageviews to USFstat if I have the time.
Linkie (http://tinyurl.com/usfstat)
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I added two new charts based on page views.
Page views per post
(https://i.gyazo.com/eeef06b4dd1dab5c5f90a1e556fc37a7.png)
Page view trend
(https://i.gyazo.com/41f131f17ab08ed80b384b96feac84ad.png)
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I wonder what that spike was
count to a million maybe?
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it wasn't because all graphs I have shown exclude count to a million because of ctamming days when it gains hundreds of posts
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now find the median
New October prediction:
1300-1800 posts
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it wasn't because all graphs I have shown exclude count to a million because of ctamming days when it gains hundreds of posts
laaaaame
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join irc
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I haven't updated the spreadsheet in a while so I haven't found anything new interesting. All I have for you is the mid-month prediction:
October: 1350 - 1650 posts
November: 1100 - 1700 posts
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around 2000 posts this month, ahead of predictions (albeit 650 of them are from ctam)
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(https://i.gyazo.com/5a0df85ea4aead5897473b7a83574970.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/5a0df85ea4aead5897473b7a83574970.png)
November prediction:
800 - 1000 posts (without CTAM)
1300 - 1800 posts (with CTAM)
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AYYYYY and this is why you don't extrapolate trends with quadratics
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this is probably the most interesting chart out of all your charts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=805393687
i'm just a bit confused about how you plotted this -- does the average posts per topic at this current time include all topics and posts ever or just recent topics and posts -- the latter would be much more interesting but also a lot more work to get right
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not this one?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=2
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not exactly sure what that plots
also i just realized ctam contributes like almost 2 to the average posts per topic plot
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the red line is moving average posts per topic with CTAM
the orange is without
the blue line is total average posts per topic for all time
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A burst in activity occurred today. We reached over 100 posts in a single day (including CTAM) for the first time since 2015-10-23, narrowly avoiding a month with an absence of 100+ post days.
Here's how my forecast has held up so far (not counting today's activity burst):
(https://i.gyazo.com/6ac3b00fa6772a9a90442951f0affe40.png)
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i liek how shitty the autoforcefast is
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we must destroy it
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schtupid
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Update with the end of the month:
(https://i.gyazo.com/20e2b7ab5949e165cae4beb4440e84bf.png)
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what is pruprl
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the pre-spambot era
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purple is the activity which isn't finished because it takes past 10 days and next 10 days
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(https://i.gyazo.com/0e51abf060ec924900182bfcdeb6a97c.png)
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wow this force cast is not failing as badly as i predicted
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went new forecast dan
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it takes nine pages of posts to make it into the first page of everything else while it only takes 24 posts to make it into the first page of astronomy and science
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you can sort by post count???
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click replies twice
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click replies twice
holyshit
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Stats fully updated as of 2016-02-25.
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I have discovered that the length of topics on USForum closely follows this power law:
y=16077.3843(x^-1.1131)
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doesn't that look like a square root function
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uh isn't a root function x^(between 0 and 1)
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good point i was thinking it was negative
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Stats fully updated as of 2016-06-12.
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can we get another forumcast?
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Stats fully updated as of 2016-11-28.
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The last day with over 100 posts was July 10th, 2016.
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can we get another forumcast?
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maybe
the reason I didn't do one then is because it would have involved a sine wave which idk how to do in google docs
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Stats fully updated as of 2017-01-06.
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i like how you have an topics with ctam chart which is the same as topics (without ctam) but shifted up by one.
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A new forecast has been made!
(https://i.gyazo.com/c1d0de61370725c0969dbb400debd6c8.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/c1d0de61370725c0969dbb400debd6c8.png)
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XTRP best model
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the prupl is activity that isn't "finished" yet because activity includes both future and past days
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i mean the blue region
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oh kol yes best model
we will shitpost our way to infinity
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Update for the forecast to 20170105 (for finished activity levels), and five days of the forecast busting too high!
(https://i.gyazo.com/bb6212301d42b950c2eb4ffe349ad178.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/bb6212301d42b950c2eb4ffe349ad178.png)
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wow those shitposts didn't show up at all
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ikr we must schitpost at an astounding rate to achieve our goals
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idk i gotta update the schit to see how the forcecast has performed
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new forcecast with the death of usf predicted
(https://i.gyazo.com/2f29f77b7cef5c27a8e22aaec02469e7.png)
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i would guess that coincides with the death of functioning internet structure in the US or maybe the world or maybe just
science reality gets banned
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(https://i.gyazo.com/9ffc6638011808decf8e3678fbb158b6.png)
2017-03-16 wat
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Updated.
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i'm not going to do this anymore because the levels of daily spam are ridiculous
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i'm not going to do this anymore because the levels of daily spam are ridiculous
True. LIKE 100 MILLION SPAM EVERYDAY
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I decided to update it for the first time since July 2017 (!) The solution I used to remove the spam signal was to not count new topics as posts in the curated charts from November 16, 2017 (that day had more topics created than any day since January 2, 2017) until September 4, 2018, when the spambots ended by grace of an admin making new accounts have to be approved to post. Previously the curated charts were just without CTAM, but now exclude the massive spam wave from this year as well.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=1289847942
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also bong told me to move the data off of google sheets and use r or matplotlib
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(https://i.gyazo.com/6e61c055d0e039154369812735926022.png)
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A wave of spambots or just regular bots are visiting the forum every day and this wave has set new record highs for the maximum number of viewers online at the same time twice in the last week - the first time on June 30th and the second time yesterday on July 4th. More details forthcoming.
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this confirms my intution that 2012 was peak usf
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what was the previous peak that held for the longest time
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366 from july 2011
it held until december 2018 when this started happening
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Updated the sheet to 2019-10-09
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Updated the sheet to 2019-10-27
I don't know if I should keep not counting CTAM in the posts since in the current edition of Active CTAM almost every CTAM post has actual content with it rather than just being the number. Thoughts?
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dew it
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idk i'd be consistent or it might become a mess real fast
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thank you deoxcy
(https://i.gyazo.com/fc3d2fb28d9ad838864cb01aa79a2db6.png)
red = without ctam
blue = with ctam
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The measure of moving average posts per topic (which considers the previous and next 15 days from the date it calculates) had a new record high on 2019-10-31 at 45.37 posts per new topic created.
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thank you deoxcy
and thank you for stroking my dick ego
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texas
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the average posts per topic plummeted to 4.13 from around 15 because of the immense amounts of spam on the forum in 2017 and '18, and has been recovering since then, but due to the relatively low activity of the forum, has only risen by 0.09 to 4.22 today
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HOW was it so incredibly consistent for so long (red line is without CTAM, blue line is with)
(https://i.gyazo.com/9dc4c90acefcbcf99919bd199aba2e23.png)
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and ctam offsets the inconsistencies in non-ctam activity
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what about characters per post
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what about bytes per post
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that's just characters per post with extra steps
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tell that to wikipedia
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what about characters per post
i'm not scraping the forum
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what about threads per board
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what about boards per forum
wait
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what about boards per board
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what about internets per internet
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rough number of posts per month for the Spam Months (nov 2017-sept 2018) (this is just posts minus topics, cuz 99% of the spambots made new topics to spam)
November 2017: 242 posts
December 2017: 460 posts
January 2018: 354 posts
February 2018: 428 posts
March 2018: 553 posts
April 2018: 516 posts
May 2018: 524 posts
June 2018: 334 posts
July 2018: 268 posts
August 2018: 140 posts
September 2018: 177 posts
this makes the current month the most active since August 2017, and it will (>99% chance) end up with the most posts since January 2017
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the measured averaged activity level on the 3rd of June, 2020 is the highest since the 13th of January, 2017