Universe Sandbox
General Category => Everything Else => Topic started by: Darvince on September 16, 2015, 07:39:13 PM

Link to charts (http://tinyurl.com/usfstat)
Link to raw stats (http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats)
hello yes I am an official activityologist of the Universe Sandbox Forum. This board seems to be increasing in activity, along with much larger waves of new members joining the forums and leaving their typical 1 to 3 posts in the Alpha board or other similar boards. Each month since May has been increasing in activity, and we may reach a temporary height in activity around late October into early November. This will have lasting impacts on the forum activity well into next year, possibly giving 2016 the second place in terms of the number of posts it has had in the year.
Predictions for fall 2015
September total: 2200  2800 posts  Actual: 2698
October total: 2700  3700 posts
November total: 2500  3500 posts
December total: 3000  4500 posts

We need to make a petition to rename the science of statistics to "activityology"

statisticians > activityologists

September is about to surpass August in number of posts for the fourth month in a row where postcount has increased.
Revised September prediction: 2100  2400 posts

Trend of activity over the last six months:
(http://i.imgur.com/ycrS4zP.png)
There have been 20 alltime high posting records for a single day:
20080528: 1 post (forum founded)
20080531: 3 posts
20080703: 5 posts
20080706: 7 posts
20080708: 12 posts
20080709: 28 posts
20090104: 34 posts
20090218: 40 posts
20090219: 52 posts
20090220: 88 posts
20090724: 213 posts
20090829: 226 posts
20100509: 316 posts (US2 release)
20101227: 365 posts
20101231: 379 posts
20120124: 454 posts (count to a million becomes active)
20120126: 491 posts
20120511: 527 posts
20121021: 618 posts
20121111: 778 posts The record as it currently stands.
Per year record:
2008: 28 posts
2009: 226 posts
2010: 379 posts
2011: 286 posts
2012: 778 posts
2013: 275 posts
2014: 615 posts
2015: 380 posts (as of this post)
All 2012 and forward statistics include Count to a million.

Revised revised September prediction: 2400  2600 posts
October prediction: 3500  4500 posts

How do you get this data

kk

>mrw people aren't experts at the forum layout on day 1
http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats
scroll down, expand each month. other than that I export the data to a google spreadsheet and then play with it there

>mrw people aren't experts at the forum layout on day 1
http://universesandbox.com/forum/index.php?action=stats
scroll down, expand each month. other than that I export the data to a google spreadsheet and then play with it there
oh i see

Final totals for September 2015:
With CTAM: 2698 posts
Without: 1894 posts
This week's October prediction: 3400  4300 posts (with CTAM)

Current activity trend is around 80 posts per day and falling.
In May, the activity trend was at the lowest it had ever been since August of 2010, when it reached a low of 14.19 posts. August 2010 had a low of 12.29 posts.
New October prediction (based on much lower activity than expected): 2700  3700 posts

Tomorrow I may add pageviews to USFstat if I have the time.
Linkie (http://tinyurl.com/usfstat)

I added two new charts based on page views.
Page views per post
(https://i.gyazo.com/eeef06b4dd1dab5c5f90a1e556fc37a7.png)
Page view trend
(https://i.gyazo.com/41f131f17ab08ed80b384b96feac84ad.png)

I wonder what that spike was
count to a million maybe?

it wasn't because all graphs I have shown exclude count to a million because of ctamming days when it gains hundreds of posts

The average member
has made 39 posts, only 11 under their avatar because 28 of them are in EE
has made 2 topics
is male
does not browse the forum every day
Hi I am dr. owl with a degree from university of Aeridani in memberology

now find the median
New October prediction:
13001800 posts

it wasn't because all graphs I have shown exclude count to a million because of ctamming days when it gains hundreds of posts
laaaaame

join irc

I haven't updated the spreadsheet in a while so I haven't found anything new interesting. All I have for you is the midmonth prediction:
October: 1350  1650 posts
November: 1100  1700 posts

around 2000 posts this month, ahead of predictions (albeit 650 of them are from ctam)

(https://i.gyazo.com/5a0df85ea4aead5897473b7a83574970.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/5a0df85ea4aead5897473b7a83574970.png)
November prediction:
800  1000 posts (without CTAM)
1300  1800 posts (with CTAM)

AYYYYY and this is why you don't extrapolate trends with quadratics

this is probably the most interesting chart out of all your charts
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=805393687
i'm just a bit confused about how you plotted this  does the average posts per topic at this current time include all topics and posts ever or just recent topics and posts  the latter would be much more interesting but also a lot more work to get right

not this one?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=2

not exactly sure what that plots
also i just realized ctam contributes like almost 2 to the average posts per topic plot

the red line is moving average posts per topic with CTAM
the orange is without
the blue line is total average posts per topic for all time

A burst in activity occurred today. We reached over 100 posts in a single day (including CTAM) for the first time since 20151023, narrowly avoiding a month with an absence of 100+ post days.
Here's how my forecast has held up so far (not counting today's activity burst):
(https://i.gyazo.com/6ac3b00fa6772a9a90442951f0affe40.png)

i liek how shitty the autoforcefast is

we must destroy it

schtupid

Update with the end of the month:
(https://i.gyazo.com/20e2b7ab5949e165cae4beb4440e84bf.png)

what is pruprl

the prespambot era

purple is the activity which isn't finished because it takes past 10 days and next 10 days

(https://i.gyazo.com/0e51abf060ec924900182bfcdeb6a97c.png)

wow this force cast is not failing as badly as i predicted

went new forecast dan

it takes nine pages of posts to make it into the first page of everything else while it only takes 24 posts to make it into the first page of astronomy and science

you can sort by post count???

click replies twice

click replies twice
holyshit

Stats fully updated as of 20160225.

I have discovered that the length of topics on USForum closely follows this power law:
y=16077.3843(x^1.1131)

doesn't that look like a square root function

uh isn't a root function x^(between 0 and 1)

good point i was thinking it was negative

Stats fully updated as of 20160612.

can we get another forumcast?

Stats fully updated as of 20161128.

The last day with over 100 posts was July 10th, 2016.

can we get another forumcast?

maybe
the reason I didn't do one then is because it would have involved a sine wave which idk how to do in google docs

Stats fully updated as of 20170106.

i like how you have an topics with ctam chart which is the same as topics (without ctam) but shifted up by one.

A new forecast has been made!
(https://i.gyazo.com/c1d0de61370725c0969dbb400debd6c8.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/c1d0de61370725c0969dbb400debd6c8.png)

XTRP best model

the prupl is activity that isn't "finished" yet because activity includes both future and past days

i mean the blue region

oh kol yes best model
we will shitpost our way to infinity

Update for the forecast to 20170105 (for finished activity levels), and five days of the forecast busting too high!
(https://i.gyazo.com/bb6212301d42b950c2eb4ffe349ad178.png) (https://i.gyazo.com/bb6212301d42b950c2eb4ffe349ad178.png)

wow those shitposts didn't show up at all

ikr we must schitpost at an astounding rate to achieve our goals

mess let's try 2k before january

idk i gotta update the schit to see how the forcecast has performed

mess we're gonna fail and usf will die

new forcecast with the death of usf predicted
(https://i.gyazo.com/2f29f77b7cef5c27a8e22aaec02469e7.png)

i would guess that coincides with the death of functioning internet structure in the US or maybe the world or maybe just
science reality gets banned

(https://i.gyazo.com/9ffc6638011808decf8e3678fbb158b6.png)
20170316 wat

wtf

Updated.

i'm not going to do this anymore because the levels of daily spam are ridiculous

i'm not going to do this anymore because the levels of daily spam are ridiculous
True. LIKE 100 MILLION SPAM EVERYDAY

I decided to update it for the first time since July 2017 (!) The solution I used to remove the spam signal was to not count new topics as posts in the curated charts from November 16, 2017 (that day had more topics created than any day since January 2, 2017) until September 4, 2018, when the spambots ended by grace of an admin making new accounts have to be approved to post. Previously the curated charts were just without CTAM, but now exclude the massive spam wave from this year as well.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IpQsKX3K6WgZ5slwydnG4_tR08zdOOX_naFxHVavrAs/edit#gid=1289847942

also bong told me to move the data off of google sheets and use r or matplotlib

(https://i.gyazo.com/6e61c055d0e039154369812735926022.png)

A wave of spambots or just regular bots are visiting the forum every day and this wave has set new record highs for the maximum number of viewers online at the same time twice in the last week  the first time on June 30th and the second time yesterday on July 4th. More details forthcoming.

this confirms my intution that 2012 was peak usf

what was the previous peak that held for the longest time

366 from july 2011
it held until december 2018 when this started happening

Updated the sheet to 20191009

Updated the sheet to 20191027
I don't know if I should keep not counting CTAM in the posts since in the current edition of Active CTAM almost every CTAM post has actual content with it rather than just being the number. Thoughts?

dew it

idk i'd be consistent or it might become a mess real fast

thank you deoxcy
(https://i.gyazo.com/fc3d2fb28d9ad838864cb01aa79a2db6.png)
red = without ctam
blue = with ctam

The measure of moving average posts per topic (which considers the previous and next 15 days from the date it calculates) had a new record high on 20191031 at 45.37 posts per new topic created.

thank you deoxcy
and thank you for stroking my dick ego

texas