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General Category => Astronomy & Science => Topic started by: SuperNova on January 17, 2010, 09:02:44 AM

Title: will the Apophis hit us?
Post by: SuperNova on January 17, 2010, 09:02:44 AM
title says all
Title: Re: will the Apophis hit us?
Post by: deoxy99 on January 17, 2010, 10:06:10 AM
2036.
Title: Re: will the Apophis hit us?
Post by: atomic7732 on January 17, 2010, 11:42:15 AM
Basic probabilities

2029 - nope
2036 - low <highest chance still about 1 in 100,000

Note: Not even a 1 on Troino scale
Title: Re: will the Apophis hit us?
Post by: deoxy99 on January 17, 2010, 12:21:03 PM
Yeah whatever.
Title: Re: will the Apophis hit us?
Post by: atomic7732 on January 17, 2010, 12:59:08 PM
Oh so you want it to hit us. I see. Just see for yourself.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

2036 - 1 in 233,000
2056 - 1 in 10,000,000
2068 - 1 in 400,000 or 9,091,000
2076 - 1 in 4,545,000
2103 - 1 in 7,692,000

Interesting that they are all April 13ths...
2036 - Fri
2056 - Thu
2068 - Fri
2076 - Mon
2103 - Fri

Oh, the years also end in 8's or 6's except for 2103.

Title: Re: will the Apophis hit us?
Post by: deoxy99 on January 17, 2010, 06:17:44 PM
Oh so you want it to hit us. I see. Just see for yourself.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

2036 - 1 in 233,000
2056 - 1 in 10,000,000
2068 - 1 in 400,000 or 9,091,000
2076 - 1 in 4,545,000
2103 - 1 in 7,692,000

Interesting that they are all April 13ths...
2036 - Fri
2056 - Thu
2068 - Fri
2076 - Mon
2103 - Fri

Oh, the years also end in 8's or 6's except for 2103.



No, I do NOT want it to hit us. It will kill everyone!
Title: Re: will the Apophis hit us?
Post by: atomic7732 on January 17, 2010, 07:38:39 PM
But you are saying it will and that I am wrong.
Title: Re: will the Apophis hit us?
Post by: Dan Dixon on January 17, 2010, 08:13:13 PM
will the Apophis hit us?

In short, no.

Even it was on its way toward us, there would be plenty of time to develop a mission to redirect its path.

@NeutronStar
Thanks for the specific probabilities and the link.