Universe SandboxGeneral CategoryAstronomy & Sciencewill the Apophis hit us?
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SuperNova
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« on: January 17, 2010, 09:02:44 AM »
title says all
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deoxy99
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2010, 10:06:10 AM »
2036.
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atomic7732
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2010, 11:42:15 AM »
Basic probabilities

2029 - nope
2036 - low <highest chance still about 1 in 100,000

Note: Not even a 1 on Troino scale
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deoxy99
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2010, 12:21:03 PM »
Yeah whatever.
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atomic7732
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2010, 12:59:08 PM »
Oh so you want it to hit us. I see. Just see for yourself.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

2036 - 1 in 233,000
2056 - 1 in 10,000,000
2068 - 1 in 400,000 or 9,091,000
2076 - 1 in 4,545,000
2103 - 1 in 7,692,000

Interesting that they are all April 13ths...
2036 - Fri
2056 - Thu
2068 - Fri
2076 - Mon
2103 - Fri

Oh, the years also end in 8's or 6's except for 2103.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2010, 01:06:35 PM by NeutronStar » Logged
deoxy99
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2010, 06:17:44 PM »
Quote from: NeutronStar on January 17, 2010, 12:59:08 PM
Oh so you want it to hit us. I see. Just see for yourself.

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/a99942.html

2036 - 1 in 233,000
2056 - 1 in 10,000,000
2068 - 1 in 400,000 or 9,091,000
2076 - 1 in 4,545,000
2103 - 1 in 7,692,000

Interesting that they are all April 13ths...
2036 - Fri
2056 - Thu
2068 - Fri
2076 - Mon
2103 - Fri

Oh, the years also end in 8's or 6's except for 2103.




No, I do NOT want it to hit us. It will kill everyone!
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atomic7732
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2010, 07:38:39 PM »
But you are saying it will and that I am wrong.
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Dan Dixon
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2010, 08:13:13 PM »
Quote from: SuperNova on January 17, 2010, 09:02:44 AM
will the Apophis hit us?

In short, no.

Even it was on its way toward us, there would be plenty of time to develop a mission to redirect its path.

@NeutronStar
Thanks for the specific probabilities and the link.
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